My geopolitical predictions for Latin America - 2019-2020

[worldexploder]

Jair Bolsonaro, the far right President-elect of Brazil, will wage a brutal campaign against drug lords in Brazil. He has already stated that the police should "shoot more drug dealers" and wants to loosen gun restrictions so its citizens can protect themselves. Since the murder rate in Brazil is already around 60k a year, expect those numbers to double. This could create somewhat of an Internal Conflict in Brazil.

If Jair is able to maintain power, it's very possible that he could invade Venezuela in 2020 with the full backing of Donald Trump, who is about to declare Venezuela a state sponsor of terrorism. I don't expect a full on invasion by Brazil at first - more like a series of ground incursions in the bordering states of Amazonas and Bolívar. This may encourage right wing members of the Venezuelan military to defect and be trained by Brazil with the aid of American troops before Maduro is overthrown. This scenario will most likely lead to a full scale civil war in Venezuela.

I expect that millions of Venezuelans will flee their countries and escape to Colombia. This could lead to an increase in migrant caravans heading to Mexico - many of whom will try to look for work in that country instead of the United States. This will cause a rise in Mexican nationalism and a backlash against the refugees from South and Central America.

I suspect South America will become even more anti-American than they are now. And for understandable reasons. Who knows what economic and political domino effects will result from this.

If Trump loses the election in 2020 (I hope he does), I believe that Putin will strengthen ties with Brazil to make up for it.

 

[Threads]

Trump will probably win in 2020 if the economy continues going strong, although I don't think he'll win all the states he won last time. If the economy continues to do well, and the democratic party runs a progressive candidate, he'll win. Progressive candidates typically lose elections compared to centrists. Trump can keep the economy going strong for another 2 years just by executive actions, we won't see the full extent of the damage from tax breaks for a couple years.

I see a civil war breaking out in Brazil with full on destabilization in South America, which will spill into Venezuela and Columbia. I can see the United States, and Israel (Given Bolsonaro's support and love for Israel) sending advisors and supplies to assist. I think that it will come down to guerrilla fighters in the Amazon states with the backing of Venezuela and China. China has a vested interest in that region.

I think a more interesting election will be the House Make up, and governors election in 2020. Republicans will probably hold the senate until 2026. But the house will probably gain a more democrat majority. It'll be an interesting election.

I don't see a caravan of migrants directly coming up due to the Darien Gap.

I really hope Trump loses in 2020 though.

 

[worldexploder]

Trump will probably win in 2020 if the economy continues going strong, although I don't think he'll win all the states he won last time. If the economy continues to do well, and the democratic party runs a progressive candidate, he'll win. Progressive candidates typically lose elections compared to centrists. Trump can keep the economy going strong for another 2 years just by executive actions, we won't see the full extent of the damage from tax breaks for a couple years.

I see a civil war breaking out in Brazil with full on destabilization in South America, which will spill into Venezuela and Columbia. I can see the United States, and Israel (Given Bolsonaro's support and love for Israel) sending advisors and supplies to assist. I think that it will come down to guerrilla fighters in the Amazon states with the backing of Venezuela and China. China has a vested interest in that region.

I think a more interesting election will be the House Make up, and governors election in 2020. Republicans will probably hold the senate until 2026. But the house will probably gain a more democrat majority. It'll be an interesting election.

I don't see a caravan of migrants directly coming up due to the Darien Gap.

I really hope Trump loses in 2020 though.

Very great points. Especially about the Darian Gap. Too dense and filled with drug smugglers.