Do you still trust in polling?

[noname223]

Honestly, I just roll my eyes when I see people explaining poll numbers very seriously. It is not like I have high trust in prediction markets. I think though we are in an era where polling isn't that reliable anymore. One reason might be the massive polarization, mistrust in institutions and a lot of distortions when asking questions because of these dynamics. I am tired of polling. In my country there are various polling institutes and most people who have a clue of politics know that these institutions often favor particular parties. One could say they have certain biases. but one could also argue they do it on purpose. People will cite the numbers if they favor a certain narrative. Or when people use it to fearmonger. In elections that are far away polling isn't that reliable in predicting the outcome anyway.

 

[Ikkuna]

depends on so many factors. If the polls show a very clear winner it's usually right

 

[Forever Sleep]

In terms of- are people knowledgable enough to vote in the first place? No- I don't think we all are. I'm certainly not! I tend not to vote at all because I don't have confidence in any of them.

Or- in terms of- is the system rigged? Again- I'd say- probably. Especially now that some of it is done via the internet. I'm sure it pays some countries to do what they can to fix the votes of an election. Or, to aid in smear campaigns etc.

 

[noname223]

In terms of- are people knowledgable enough to vote in the first place? No- I don't think we all are. I'm certainly not! I tend not to vote at all because I don't have confidence in any of them.

Or- in terms of- is the system rigged? Again- I'd say- probably. Especially now that some of it is done via the internet. I'm sure it pays some countries to do what they can to fix the votes of an election. Or, to aid in smear campaigns etc.

In the latter terms. There are a lot of biases when doing polling. And you have to be an expert in statistical methods to rebalance them. There are many variables on isn't aware of.
There is for example the social desirability bias. The interviewees tend to answer the question with the answer the interviewer or audience wants to hear.
The Trump victories taught me to distrust official polls more and more.

 

[X-sanguinate86]

What kind of oversight is there for all these polls and who selects which ones to disseminate? Imo they have long been used as a means to influence public opinion and behaviour, not to discover it. It was all corrupt for the the beginning but people are just starting to notice now.