do you think there will be a WW3?

[Bad-luck]

Do you really there will be?

 

[Mirrory Me]

I don't know. I asked tarot and it said that there's no need to fear.

 

[Guy Smiley]

Eventually, yes.

 

[sserafim]

Eventually, yes.

How and why?

 

[Guy Smiley]

How and why?

There are several ways it could potentially happen. Here are just a few of the more likely ones:

China finally makes good on their long-held conviction to use military force if necessary to reunify Taiwan, or they resort to using military means to enforce their claims of sovereignty in the South China Sea. Either of those scenarios could easily result in direct confrontation between China and USA.

Another would be if Russia's war on Ukraine escalates, which could happen if a Russian missile were to accidentally hit a neighboring NATO country, or Russia resorts to using a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, for example.

Another would be if Israel launches a major attack on their archrival, Iran, to prevent them from building a nuke. Iran is a close ally of Russia, and Israel is a close ally of the USA. That could lead to a direct conflict between Russia and USA.

Even if none of those things happen, the new arms race between Russia, China, and USA--especially to weaponize space--greatly increase the chances of direct conflict. And as these countries race to leverage AI for military advantage, the chances of nuking each other unintentionally increases.

 

[DarkRange55]

There are several ways it could potentially happen. Here are just a few of the more likely ones:

China finally makes good on their long-held conviction to use military force if necessary to reunify Taiwan, or they resort to using military means to enforce their claims of sovereignty in the South China Sea. Either of those scenarios could easily result in direct confrontation between China and USA.

Another would be if Russia's war on Ukraine escalates, which could happen if a Russian missile were to accidentally hit a neighboring NATO country, or Russia resorts to using a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, for example.

Another would be if Israel launches a major attack on their archrival, Iran, to prevent them from building a nuke. Iran is a close ally of Russia, and Israel is a close ally of the USA. That could lead to a direct conflict between Russia and USA.

Even if none of those things happen, the new arms race between Russia, China, and USA--especially to weaponize space--greatly increase the chances of direct conflict. And as these countries race to leverage AI for military advantage, the chances of nuking each other unintentionally increases.

Very low probability for those specifically and even less likely to play out that way…
However, it were to be a world wide conflict between any of the current players, it would likely be something between the US and China but not for those reasons.

 

[sserafim]

Very low probability for those specifically and even less likely to play out that way…
However, it were to be a world wide conflict between any of the current players, it would likely be something between the US and China but not for those reasons.

For what reasons then?

 

[DarkRange55]

Do you really there will be?

There's another thread actually that has discussed this in detail, I encourage you to check it out

For what reasons then?

the meme is partly a joke

 

[needawayout]

I can only hope so - wouldn't mind a wee nuke to take me out of my misery

 

[DarkRange55]

For what reasons then?

I've discussed this at length in the other thread

I can only hope so - wouldn't mind a wee nuke to take me out of my misery

NUKEMAP by Alex Wellerstein

NUKEMAP is a website for visualizing the effects of nuclear detonations.

nuclearsecrecy.com

For what reasons then?

Reddit - Dive into anything

www.reddit.com

The top comment…

 

[Guy Smiley]

Very low probability for those specifically and even less likely to play out that way…
However, it were to be a world wide conflict between any of the current players, it would likely be something between the US and China but not for those reasons.

Thank you for your opinion.

 

[mrelief82]

I can only hope so - wouldn't mind a wee nuke to take me out of my misery

Same here

 

[DarkRange55]

Thank you for your opinion.

Well Russia's forces are already stretched thin, exhausted and bogged down. So they can't materially sustain an invasion. Russia isn't allied with Hamas, they just historically back Palestine. But its like Syria - you just have countries shipping aide and money and mercenaries. Again, Russia doesn't have the capability to deploy. Russia is a declining power with an aging population.

I mean China doesn't need to invade the United States. They just wanna control their region and they want access to Europe and Africa. What could we really do? I mean basically we kind of have them like pinned in on the water because you have the Philippines, Australia, Taiwan, Japan and maybe Vietnam are all our allies so it's like a ring around China. So we could really interrupt their sea lanes. And they get a lot of their oil obviously from the middle east and they have to ship it and there's a lot of narrow straights we could cut off. But once they develop that belt and road initiative they're like connected to Europe and Africa through pipelines and roads and stuff what are we gonna do honestly? I mean China doesn't have to spend as much as the US. They can't invade us but we can't invade them. They should be able to control their area around China to free up their sea lanes. They don't need to conquer the United States to defeat us.

China could do something bad to Taiwan like cancellation of preferential tax rates for imported products from Taiwan. FTA, CPTPP…

Only a handful of nations now have "blue water" force projection capabilities - the ability to operate far from home waters. The US, the UK, France, Russia (which is being decimated in the black sea), Japan, India and China - and the Asian powers either keep their navy close to home waters (India & Japan) or are just now starting to develop a true blue-water capability (China).

My friend's dad is deputy director of the US Trade Representatives Office and my other friend's dad is a 4 star Admiral.

Proxy wars might be the status quo, but direct war seems obsolete to me. I think for a war now to reach a global level, it would have to be largely financially based (and we may be in one now). Management of markets and trade embargoes would lead to internal conflicts within governments that would extend across borders. It's not a war in the traditional sense, but I think it could still be considered a war. I'm doubtful of the utilitarian value of detonating a nuke during a proxy war. I believe in terms of military value there's more useful tactical weapons which also have less fallout… hybrid warfare scenario such as cyberattacks, influence OPs, and/ or Wagner/little green men is more likely with russia vs nato than outright hostilities. You could box that into state sponsored terrorism IMO...

Space isn't really the thing as much as cyber. Anti satellite weapons are being developed but with the Kessler Effect and limitations of kinetic based weapons, it's more so the realm of cyberspace. ICBM's already go through space. Race for AI superiority has already begin with the US's Project Maven and rival countries' versions of the same.

Inside Project Maven, the US Military’s AI Project

This is Washington Edition, the newsletter about money, power and politics in the nation’s capital. Today, senior Washington correspondent Saleha Mohsin talks for her podcast with a former Defense official about the US military’s use of artificial intelligence for the battlefield. Sign up here...

www.bloomberg.com

 

[Blurry_Buildings]

yes

 

[sash]

WW1 & WW2 were only named that afterwards.
I believe we are in WW3, way waayyy past the face slapped by a glove stage.
I hope theres big missiles. When the 17 (I think) minute warning beeps I will grab my Baileys & chocolate, go outside, sit facing East & eat, drink, wait and watch
Im scared of biological warfare. Or outside the blast zone of a nuke..

 

[sserafim]

yes

Why do you think so?

 

[sserafim]

WW1 & WW2 were only named that afterwards.
I believe we are in WW3, way waayyy past the face slapped by a glove stage.
I hope theres big missiles. When the 17 (I think) minute warning beeps I will grab my Baileys & chocolate, go outside, sit facing East & eat, drink, wait and watch
Im scared of biological warfare. Or outside the blast zone of a nuke..

Why do you think we're already in WW3?

 

[sash]

Why do you think we're already in WW3?

Hi, wow. Not a one sentence answer.
I have typed so much stuff here & deleting. Too much Id need to write an essay with many arrows pointing here n there :) Been watching country v country and who stands w who, who provides who weapons, last coupla yrs. Ppl are dying. More ppl will die.
Its not all on mainstream news, jus snippets, cant have us worrying eh.
If u really dont know whats going on & u really are interested, Id b happy to voice chat w you for a few hours to cover the quick version. Genuine offer :)

Look at the other wars, wasnt WW day 1, was small and little pockets fighting, joining up, alliances, enemys, factions, resources. in time grows into a historical WW.

Look at all the pockets and who & how big they are spreading.

I would b worried about the supply chain collapse thats coming, but I b dead by then

Take care :)

 

[bte]

I wouldn't doubt it. One reason I'm suicidal is that I'm distressed at the precipice we're all on, geopolitically, domestically, environmentally, etc.

 

[Blurry_Buildings]

Why do you think so?

Too many nations still participate in bloc politics for a small scale conflict between any one of them to not spiral into a world war. I can't see it changing in time before a 3rd world war