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When will China surpass the US in its power?

  • It already has

    Votes: 7 25.0%
  • in 5 years

    Votes: 2 7.1%
  • in 10 years

    Votes: 4 14.3%
  • in 20 years

    Votes: 2 7.1%
  • It will never happen

    Votes: 13 46.4%

  • Total voters
    28
N

noname223

Angelic
Aug 18, 2020
4,263
Many people are concerned about a potential war of the NATO against Russia though I think many military experts in the US would like to focus on China instead. Russia can compete in Nuclear strikes but in all other fields the US is superior.

I am very conflicted on US foreign policy. (I am German lol.) I can fully understand why the American people are tired of war. So many lives and resources were wasted. The military budget is absolutely insane and still many officals demand to raise it substantially. I would be pretty mad as an American. However the US can profit from many alliances, strategical points of intersection etc. So I think it would cause many problems if America just retreated from all their operations and military bases. And China or Russia is ready to fill the gap.

It could be China has a different notion of being a global superpower or hegemony. More an economical approach with the Belt and Road inititative. There are probablby pro and contra arguments. Seemingly China wants to attack and integrate Taiwan till 2027. All I know is the German economy will be fucked as hell.

I would be scared if did not have way bigger personal problems. As flawed as the US hegemony is (or was) there were a lot of benefits. I could imagine human rights will be worth even less. more international tensions and wars, protectionism and trade wars, potential nuclear escalation, the world should be united in order to fight climate change and instead we kill each other. Humankind is fucked.

My prediction is it will take 15-20 years till China surpasses the US. Though the US has the opportunity to build strong alliances. However we are far far away of the end of history and quite the opposite is happening. Democracy is in danger.
 
Touhou

Touhou

2hu
Mar 9, 2023
331
Never; it's actually set to collapse sooner or later & the people that answered "It already has" are a bit naive. Its economy relies extremely heavily (30% of it, in fact) on the real estate market, a collapsing market. It may also be, in fact, already way behind. While the skylines of Beijing & Shanghai give the impression that it's as developed as the US or France, in reality, Beijing's median income is lower than that of the poorest county of the US; and that county, Wheeler County, has a prison in it, making all the inmates producing license plates for 2 bucks an hour dumb those numbers down. Alongside this, its working population is at a turning point; by 2050, ~40% of China's population will be over 60, meaning more money going to pensioners & less to infrastructure, research etc etc.

https://scholar.harvard.edu/rogoff/publications/peak-china-housing
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/01/10/chinese-communist-party-property-bubble-real-estate/
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/25/china-property-bubble-evergrande-group
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/8/30/what-chinas-property-crisis
https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/PopPerc/60plus/156
https://www.un.org/en/development/d...stimates2/data/UN_MigrantStockTotal_2019.xlsx
 
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thereisthemist

thereisthemist

drops common loot when defeated
Nov 5, 2021
153
mist wonder if this site intergrated recommend algorithms now hmmm
 
JustHereforNow

JustHereforNow

Here today, gone tomorrow
Jul 26, 2023
17
It won't, when it comes to a us - china conflict, deep sea naval battles will be the name of the game, and because of geography, the united states has the strongest and biggest navy (by tonnage, i dont count canoes as warships) in the world. look up operation praying mantis, the united states does not lose naval battles.
 
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Reactions: Touhou
skepsis

skepsis

Jul 16, 2023
20
If everything continues as it is now, China will most definitely overtake the USA. Xi Jinping has the declared goal of making China the world's largest economic and military power by 2049, the centennial of the People's Republic of China. To that end, he has amended the constitution to make him president for life. He has his country under more control than any other on earth has besides North Korea, and no one else is as single-minded as the Chinese. China is buying ports all over the world, providing infrastructure, expanding its freight traffic, and linking over 60 countries directly with China with the New Silk Road, which is a huge deal. Most people in the West don't hear much about this, because no one here wants to hear about it, and those who do hear about it usually don't see it as problematic.

I am also worried about a war with Taiwan, because it could quickly lead into a world war, since the USA would be contractually obligated to intervene.

Militarily, one should also not assume that everything would go smoothly. China has a standing army of 2,000,000 soldiers with over 500,000 reservists, and there are over 280,000,000 men of draft age. If push came to shove and China pulled out all the stops, China would theoretically have a troop strength equivalent to more than three-quarters of the U.S. population. Technologically, China should not be underestimated anyway; they are busy developing new things and are not stupid enough to tell the world about it.

But what finally makes China the final opponent is the fact that this country works so well. Yes, by ethically and morally questionable means, but such chaos as in the West does not normally exist among the Chinese population. The mentality of the Chinese cannot be compared to that of other populations. While here some would probably demonstrate against the war, in China everyone would do everything to win it.

Nevertheless, one should consider that China wants to avoid a war for the time being, because they will not gain their desired economic power if they start stress with half of the world's population. What will happen with Taiwan remains to be seen. They will certainly try to seize Taiwan without triggering a world war, which might be difficult.
 
Touhou

Touhou

2hu
Mar 9, 2023
331
If everything continues as it is now, China will most definitely overtake the USA. Xi Jinping has the declared goal of making China the world's largest economic and military power by 2049, the centennial of the People's Republic of China. To that end, he has amended the constitution to make him president for life. He has his country under more control than any other on earth has besides North Korea, and no one else is as single-minded as the Chinese. China is buying ports all over the world, providing infrastructure, expanding its freight traffic, and linking over 60 countries directly with China with the New Silk Road, which is a huge deal. Most people in the West don't hear much about this, because no one here wants to hear about it, and those who do hear about it usually don't see it as problematic.

I am also worried about a war with Taiwan, because it could quickly lead into a world war, since the USA would be contractually obligated to intervene.

Militarily, one should also not assume that everything would go smoothly. China has a standing army of 2,000,000 soldiers with over 500,000 reservists, and there are over 280,000,000 men of draft age. If push came to shove and China pulled out all the stops, China would theoretically have a troop strength equivalent to more than three-quarters of the U.S. population. Technologically, China should not be underestimated anyway; they are busy developing new things and are not stupid enough to tell the world about it.

But what finally makes China the final opponent is the fact that this country works so well. Yes, by ethically and morally questionable means, but such chaos as in the West does not normally exist among the Chinese population. The mentality of the Chinese cannot be compared to that of other populations. While here some would probably demonstrate against the war, in China everyone would do everything to win it.

Nevertheless, one should consider that China wants to avoid a war for the time being, because they will not gain their desired economic power if they start stress with half of the world's population. What will happen with Taiwan remains to be seen. They will certainly try to seize Taiwan without triggering a world war, which might be difficult.
Good point, however, the points I made earlier in this thread take your argument and put it through a woodchipper, then blend it up into a fine paste & make a smoothie with it.

Never; it's actually set to collapse sooner or later & the people that answered "It already has" are a bit naive. Its economy relies extremely heavily (30% of it, in fact) on the real estate market, a collapsing market. It may also be, in fact, already way behind. While the skylines of Beijing & Shanghai give the impression that it's as developed as the US or France, in reality, Beijing's median income is lower than that of the poorest county of the US; and that county, Wheeler County, has a prison in it, making all the inmates producing license plates for 2 bucks an hour dumb those numbers down. Alongside this, its working population is at a turning point; by 2050, ~40% of China's population will be over 60, meaning more money going to pensioners & less to infrastructure, research etc etc.

https://scholar.harvard.edu/rogoff/publications/peak-china-housing
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/01/10/chinese-communist-party-property-bubble-real-estate/
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/sep/25/china-property-bubble-evergrande-group
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/8/30/what-chinas-property-crisis
https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/PopPerc/60plus/156
https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2022-11/lapi1122.pdf
https://www.un.org/en/development/d...stimates2/data/UN_MigrantStockTotal_2019.xlsx
 
skepsis

skepsis

Jul 16, 2023
20
Good point, however, the points I made earlier in this thread take your argument and put it through a woodchipper, then blend it up into a fine paste & make a smoothie with it.
I don't think so. I'm not saying your sources aren't credible (obviously), but China has managed to overcome crisis quite a few times. In the 80s, 90s and 2008 China was struggling as hell with almost everyone predicting a following collapse of the Chinese economy. Many papers and even a few books were published and all of them turned out to be false. China always managed to adept and overcome, often additionally strengthen the Asian economy in the process.
Is China doomed if they don't manage to resolve the issues they have right now? Most certainly.
But China is very good at finding solutions and that's exactly what they're doing now.
 
O

obligatoryshackles

I don't want to get used to it.
Aug 11, 2023
94
I think China in some shape or form will outlast the US in a long inevitability if humanity does not destroy itself. Even if at that point China is not the dominant power, it will at least be above the US. China has a lot more cultural unity than most other nations in the world, which is why it survived as a largely culturally similar society for basically all of history while the US is a literal mishmash of conflicting ideologies and cultures that seem hellbent on tearing the country apart sooner or later.

Bit of a copout answer but I don't think China will surpass the US in the current race for global hegemony though it will inevitably surpass the US by default when it collapses one day.
 
Touhou

Touhou

2hu
Mar 9, 2023
331
I don't think so. I'm not saying your sources aren't credible (obviously), but China has managed to overcome crisis quite a few times. In the 80s, 90s and 2008 China was struggling as hell with almost everyone predicting a following collapse of the Chinese economy. Many papers and even a few books were published and all of them turned out to be false. China always managed to adept and overcome, often additionally strengthen the Asian economy in the process.
Is China doomed if they don't manage to resolve the issues they have right now? Most certainly.
But China is very good at finding solutions and that's exactly what they're doing now.
It's actually quite easy to refute this argument; the mentioned crises are nowhere near the level of China's upcoming economic collapse. With that being said, the points I made earlier in this thread DO in fact take your argument and put it through a woodchipper, then blend it up into a fine paste & make a smoothie with it.
 
skepsis

skepsis

Jul 16, 2023
20
It's actually quite easy to refute this argument; the mentioned crises are nowhere near the level of China's upcoming economic collapse. With that being said, the points I made earlier in this thread DO in fact take your argument and put it through a woodchipper, then blend it up into a fine paste & make a smoothie with it.
No, they don't. China is also aware of the problems they're facing, and they will at least try to find solutions. The past shows us that they are pretty good at finding solutions. Only time will tell who's right here.
 
Touhou

Touhou

2hu
Mar 9, 2023
331
No, they don't. China is also aware of the problems they're facing, and they will at least try to find solutions. The past shows us that they are pretty good at finding solutions. Only time will tell who's right here.
That's an extremely baseless claim. You didn't even address my argument. As I said, the crises in the 80s, 90s, & 2000s are nowhere near the level of the impending collapse of China's economy. Your entire argument is also fallacious in that you're using 3 crises that aren't really representative of the impending one to generalize China's ability to "find solutions"; a hasty generalization. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faulty_generalization#Hasty_generalization. Alongside this, you also never addressed the fact that the vast majority of Chinese metropolitan areas have per-capita GDPs lower than that of the poorest US counties. The US counties in question have prisons in them, making all of the inmates producing license plates for a dollar an hour majorly dumb those numbers down.
 
Last edited:
skepsis

skepsis

Jul 16, 2023
20
That's an extremely baseless claim. You didn't even address my argument. As I said, the crises in the 80s, 90s, & 2000s are nowhere near the level of the impending collapse of China's economy. Your entire argument is also fallacious in that you're using 3 crises that aren't really representative of the impending one to generalize China's ability to "find solutions"; a hasty generalization. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faulty_generalization#Hasty_generalization
I understand that you want to discuss this very badly, but I made my points whether you accept them or call them hasty generalizations. Time will tell, that's all I have to say.
 
Touhou

Touhou

2hu
Mar 9, 2023
331
I understand that you want to discuss this very badly, but I made my points whether you accept them or call them hasty generalizations. Time will tell, that's all I have to say.
Thank you for admitting defeat. All I have to say is I'd love to see the look on your face when CNN starts commenting on 30% of Winnie the Pooh's honey rotting.
 
DarkRange55

DarkRange55

Enlightened
Oct 15, 2023
1,199
Please check the thread on WWIII I posted on.

I can try to elaborate here anyway, if you like…