Sort of encouraging statistic about suicide in the US

[sm20]

If you're worried you'll never get the nerve to commit suicide, 1 in 88 people commit suicide. These statistics are probably lower in other countries with less access to firearms, but if you're here you at least have done some reading about how to attempt the right way so the odds of you dying would be higher than the general population. I know my life has been bad enough compared to other peoples to be that 1 person out of 88 if I want to.

 

[WornOutLife]

1 in 88 is certainly interesting.
I might be one of those too but I have no idea which the real numbers here in Argentina are.

 

[deathisnear]

I will be 1 of the 88 and proudly so. I am not going back to debating anymore, my mind is set, it may not happen right away, but it will. That is encouraging indeed.

 

[CC123]

If there are around 325,000,000 in the US, dividing that by 88 gives us 3,693,181.
If you are asserting that there are that many suicides annually in the US, I am skeptical of the number.

 

[sm20]

If there are around 325,000,000 in the US, dividing that by 88 gives us 3,693,181.
If you are asserting that there are that many suicides annually in the US, I am skeptical of the number.

Stats are here. https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/all-injuries/preventable-death-overview/odds-of-dying/ I've seen the same stat on another website too. Suicide rates have been going up for a while now and this stat is from 2019.
I can't find the other site but here are the stats from 2013 which was 1 in 106. https://lifehacker.com/here-are-your-odds-of-dying-from-the-most-popular-cause-912993910

 

[CC123]

That article DOES NOT say that 1 in 88 people die by suicide.
It is an odds calculation.
This chart also asserts 1 in 107 for motor-vehicle crash.
You asserted that "1 in 88 people commit suicide"
If 1 in 107 people die in motor-vehicle crashes, that would be 3,037,383 deaths.
You have misinterpreted the information in that chart.

 

[sm20]

That article DOES NOT say that 1 in 88 people die by suicide.
It is an odds calculation.
This chart also asserts 1 in 107 for motor-vehicle crash.
You asserted that "1 in 88 people commit suicide"
If 1 in 107 people die in motor-vehicle crashes, that would be 3,037,383 deaths.
You have misinterpreted the information in that chart.

I don't think you needed to do all caps over that but okay.

 

[Rayzieka]

From what i'm looking up it seems like the deaths by ctb in the us are around 50k a year?
Good enough odds for me though OP

 

[sm20]

From what i'm looking up it seems like the deaths by ctb in the us are around 50k a year?
Good enough odds for me though OP

Something about an odds calculation? I don't know exactly what that is or if it's predicting what the actual statistic will be in the future once we're all dead.

Something about an odds calculation? I don't know exactly what that is or if it's predicting what the actual statistic will be in the future once we're all dead.

Edit: And if that's what an odds calculation is which it seems to be based off going back and reading the article more the all caps makes even less sense than it did before.

 

[FuneralCry]

Yes, I think it shows how cruel this life can be, that people are pushed into doing this. Taking our own lives is hard but we can overcome the SI if we are desperate. I hope to be part of it, I hate the idea of old age. There is no firearms in the UK, but it will probably be a similar statistic here.

 

[motel rooms]

What are you talking about? 1 in 88 people?
The suicide rate in the US in 2019 was 13.93 per 100,000 individuals. The rate of suicide is highest in middle-aged white men. In 2019, men died by suicide 3.63x more often than women.

 

[sm20]

What are you talking about? 1 in 88 people?
The suicide rate in the US in 2019 was 13.93 per 100,000 individuals. The rate of suicide is highest in middle-aged white men. In 2019, men died by suicide 3.63x more often than women.

Not currently but since it's an odds calculation for what the statistics will be in the future when we're all dead, taking into account that the suicide rates are likely to keep increasing over time. I don't know how they take age into consideration since the odds have been changing somewhat significantly over the past decade but in general, that's what it says.
It does still sound high, but I have no experience in statistics and I wouldn't trust my judgement over a statistician. Especially when they have odds of dying of cancer basically at what it is now, it gives me more reason to trust the other odds.

 

[motel rooms]

Not currently but since it's an odds calculation for what the statistics will be in the future when we're all dead, taking into account that the suicide rates are likely to keep increasing over time. I don't know how they take age into consideration since the odds have been changing somewhat significantly over the past decade but in general, that's what it says.

In 2019, a total of 47,511 deaths in the US were attributed to suicide. From 2018 to 2019, the overall suicide rate declined by 2.1% (14.2 per 100,000 population to 13.9)
1 in 88 is 1,14 % of the population - that's insane...

 

[sm20]

In 2019, a total of 47,511 deaths in the US were attributed to suicide. From 2018 to 2019, the overall suicide rate declined by 2.1% (14.2 per 100,000 population to 13.9)
1 in 88 is 1,14 % of the population - that's insane...

Yeah maybe, it's not my math and it seems like an actual organization that did it but you could be right.

 

[motel rooms]

Yeah maybe, it's not my math and it seems like an actual organization that did it but you could be right.

How could the number of suicides per year go from less than 50,000 to over 3 million? Those people are on acid

 

[Ch92921]

If you're worried you'll never get the nerve to commit suicide, 1 in 88 people commit suicide. These statistics are probably lower in other countries with less access to firearms, but if you're here you at least have done some reading about how to attempt the right way so the odds of you dying would be higher than the general population. I know my life has been bad enough compared to other peoples to be that 1 person out of 88 if I want to.

They are not lower dude! We just use other methods?

 

[sm20]

How could the number of suicides per year go from less than 50,000 to over 3 million? Those people are on acid

Only way I could see it is climate change fucking things up and more pandemics coming from how our agriculture industry is handled, leading to more isolation and suicides like with covid. I know they wouldn't be taking those things into account so I have no idea.

 

[motel rooms]

@Schöngeist Au soucceur!

 

[Deleted member 8579]

Au soucceur!

What is that supposed to mean? I think you meant to write "Au secours"...

As for the post:
You are confusing probability and odds.
If the probability of dying of suicide would be 1/88, then indeed every 88th citizen would kill himself.

Example: We toss a fair coin. The odds of obtaining heads are 1:1; this does not mean that every throw will result in heads.
We know that the probability for heads is 1/2, which translates to every second throw will result in heads.

That being said, these numbers still look strange. If I compute the probability on the basis of the given odds, I obtain 1/89, which is still freakishly high.
I am not a statistician, so I might be overlooking something.

P.S.: I just looked at the second link; something is not right here.
The odds are calculated like this:

O=P/(1-P),

where P=probability and O=odds.
The link says that the odds for dying from any cause are 1:1. This means that the probability of dying from any cause is 1/2, which is wrong; the probability of dying from any cause is 1. They even write in the text that the odds 1:1 mean 100%, which they don't.
These people are either incompetent, or they use the word "odds" in a very different sense than usual.

 

[Ch92921]

Eng

What is that supposed to mean? I think you meant to write "Au secours"...

As for the post:
You are confusing probability and odds.
If the probability of dying of suicide would be 1/88, then indeed every 88th citizen would kill himself.

Example: We toss a fair coin. The odds of obtaining heads are 1:1; this does not mean that every throw will result in heads.
We know that the probability for heads is 1/2, which translates to every second throw will result in heads.

That being said, these numbers still look strange. If I compute the probability on the basis of the given odds, I obtain 1/89, which is still freakishly high.
I am not a statistician, so I might be overlooking something.

But thats the case. In Switzerland 2 of 100 deaths are suicides.

 

[Deleted member 8579]

Eng

But thats the case. In Switzerland 2 of 100 deaths are suicides.

Where did you get that number from? Switzerland has around 8,5*10^6 inhabitants. That would imply 170.000 successful suicides per year!
Wikipedia says that the suicide rate of Switzerland is 10,7 per 100.000, which is far more believable.

 

[Ch92921]

Where did you get that number from? Switzerland has around 8,5*10^6 inhabitants. That would imply 170.000 successful suicides per year!
Wikipedia says that the suicide rate of Switzerland is 10,7 per 100.000, which is far more believable.

I am talking in relation to the number of deaths.
We had 70000 deaths and 1000 were suicides.

So your number cant be correct.

 

[motel rooms]

What is that supposed to mean? I think you meant to write "Au secours"...

It's abundantly clear I don't speak French Maybe that's how they spell it in Quebec

 

[Deleted member 8579]

It's abundantly clear I don't speak French Maybe that's how they spell it in Quebec

C'était une tentative courageuse.

 

[motel rooms]

C'était une tentative courageuse.

Google Translate triomphe une fois de plus!

 

[Latios]

I think the 1 in 88 number is the total number of people who commit suicide in their entire lifetimes, while the 50k per year is the number who commit suicide in a year. When we multiply the 50k number by the average life expectancy, we get around 3.5 million deaths-by-suicide in the US over a person's entire lifespan....

 

[motel rooms]

I think the 1 in 88 number is the total number of people who commit suicide in their entire lifetimes

Successfully completed suicides couldn't possibly be that common if the suicide rate in the US is only 14 out of 100k. Only fourteen out of a hundred thousand people!

 

[Deleted member 8579]

I think the 1 in 88 number is the total number of people who commit suicide in their entire lifetimes, while the 50k per year is the number who commit suicide in a year. When we multiply the 50k number by the average life expectancy, we get around 3.5 million deaths-by-suicide in the US over a person's entire lifespan....

I think you are right.
[From here on all the numbers are rounded.]
Let us assume that the population of the US of A remains at a constant 331*10^6 and that the average life expectancy is 78 years.
If we assume that 1:88 are the odds of dying of suicide in the time span of 78 years, that means that the probability of doing so is 1/89.
Therefore, the total number of people committing suicide in the time span of 78 years is 331*10^6/89=3719101.
This means that the annual number of suicides is 3719101/78=47681, which equals 14,4 per 100000.
Why these people didn't clarify this under their chart is a mystery; it certainly isn't obvious and can easily lead to such misunderstandings as the ones we witnessed here.

 

[demuic]

I think you are right.
[From here on all the numbers are rounded.]
Let us assume that the population of the US of A remains at a constant 331*10^6 and that the average life expectancy is 78 years.
If we assume that 1:88 are the odds of dying of suicide in the time span of 78 years, that means that the probability of doing so is 1/89.
Therefore, the total number of people committing suicide in the time span of 78 years is 331*10^6/89=3719101.
This means that the annual number of suicides is 3719101/78=47681, which equals 14,4 per 100000.
Why these people didn't clarify this under their chart is a mystery; it certainly isn't obvious and can easily lead to such misunderstandings as the ones we witnessed here.

Yes, but...

The chart literally says "Lifetime odds of death for selected causes"

So I'm not sure why there's all this confusion... OP didn't even say anything about annual deaths or anything so that's just an assumption someone made out of their own confusion.

 

[Deleted member 8579]

So I'm not sure why there's all this confusion... OP didn't even say anything about annual deaths or anything so that's just an assumption someone made out of their own confusion.

He claimed that 1 in 88 people commit suicide and only produced the source upon request.