moore's law

[Darkover]

Moore's law is the observation that the number of transistors in an integrated circuit (IC) doubles about every two years. Moore's law is an observation and projection of a historical trend. Rather than a law of physics, it is an empirical relationship linked to gains from experience in production.

cpu with most transistors
The highest transistor count in a consumer microprocessor as of June 2023 is 134 billion transistors, in Apple's ARM-based dual-die M2 Ultra system on a chip, which is fabricated using TSMC's 5 nm semiconductor manufacturing process.

Spoiler: transistors count doubling every two years

year 1971 2300
year 1973 4600
year 1975 9200
year 1977 18400
year 1979 36800
year 1981 73600
year 1983 147200
year 1985 294400
year 1987 588800
year 1989 1177600
year 1991 2355200
year 1993 4710400
year 1995 9420800
year 1997 18841600
year 1999 37683200
year 2001 75366400
year 2003 150732800
year 2005 301465600
year 2007 602931200
year 2009 1205862400
year 2011 2411724800
year 2013 4823449600
year 2015 9646899200
year 2017 19293798400
year 2019 38587596800
year 2021 77175193600
year 2023 154350387200
year 2025 308700774400
year 2027 617401548800
year 2029 1234803098000
year 2031 2469606195000
year 2033 4939212390000
year 2035 9878424781000
year 2037 19756849560000
year 2039 39513699120000
year 2041 79027398250000
year 2043 158054796500000
year 2045 316109593000000
year 2047 632219186000000
year 2049 1264438372000000

 

[oddetoad]

and the point is?

 

[ADeadBunny]

and the point is?

Perhaps there wasn't one and they were just sharing?

 

[Blurry_Buildings]

Isn't Moore's law reaching it's physical limits with conventional transistors though?

I've heard a lot of manufacturers are trying to diversify or find work arounds because devlopment is beginning to plateau.

 

[Darkover]

Isn't Moore's law reaching it's physical limits with conventional transistors?

yes currently transistor are made using the 5 nano-meters process but they can only reduce the size of the transistors to the physical limits the universe allows for 1nm is said to the very limit as a atom is 0.2nm wide , the only way to make chips with more transistor is to stack them on top of each of other but every cpu chip in exsitance uses a flat surface the way the chips are made requires light to etch the transistor on the surface but there not stacked in 3d layer on top of layer so there alot of problems to overcome to get more and more transistors into a certain size

 

[Abandoned Character]

Modern transistors are limited physically due to the quantum nature of the electron. At small enough scales, the probability cloud of the electron actually extends outside the bounds of the transistor, thus quantum tunneling through the system and ceasing to function properly. A breakthrough in transistor technology will have to work around this physical limitation. I am hopeful that such a breakthrough will occur. Moore's law demonstrates the exponential nature of humanity's technological progression and is one of the reasons I am interested in seeing this life through.

When will Moore fail, and what will take its place? Will we reach a singularity in which our known understanding of the world is no longer compatible with the technological advancement? Or is there truly a limit that we cannot cross? I highly doubt the latter.