Is Trump Intentionally tanking the US economy?

[Grav]

Until more time passes nobody will know if this is good or bad. Economists all have their angle, some promote communism, others total unfettered free trade, no taxes, high taxes, etc and pull out their numbers to prove it. Not saying they're idiots, I just half liaten to what they say. I'd like to see a more solid approach to bringing back manufacturing along with real hard talk about it. I know where I live teaching kids about civics and finance is way out of style so the populace has no clue. Anyone remember when China threatened to cut off shipments of medicine and supplies when they were brought up as the source for making covid? People did a "huh, what?" And it was quickly forgotten. The US is willing to buy cheap goods while talking crap about wages here being so low. Maybe things shouldn't be as cheap as they are? There is a whole segment of society that needs the manufacturing jobs and ignoring that for another iphone version isn't helping anyone and instead doing more long term damage.

 

[GhostInTheMachine]

I don't think it's too early to state now that tariffs are going to be a net negative with nothing else to offset their economic impact on the final consumer. They objectively will be a disaster, and the real question is how bad will it be, and for long long will we feel it?

We already have manufacturing here in the US, but regulations (which are generally good) make it so that there's a barrier of entry in terms of start-up cost. When Trump and his ilk peddle their rhetoric, they refuse to just outright say that in order for us to have *enough* manufacturing here, said manufacturing will no longer be akin that what we already have. It won't be mostly end-stage/final product building and instead we'll be attempting lower the bar towards low level component manufacture (or temu level crap). Then one must ask, is this still even economically viable with (as I said in one of my last responses) a lot of the regulations that exist to make such work "safe" for the workers.

Going further from there, who are we going to export these products to when the rest of the world tariffed us to hell? It's not like the US suddenly being a manufacturing giant will mean that other current giants are just going to disappear. We are simply not going to be the next China, and honestly why would we want to? Chinese factory work sucks, as does most mass manufacturing overseas. Do we lower our standards for a slim chance of a payout? I'd rather find solutions elsewhere that while including more manufacturing here in the US, does not include lowering our standards of living simply to churn a buck.

Service jobs (especially trade work) are fine, the issue is people don't get paid well (be it wages, benefits, or anything else). Companies like to pretend as if daring to pay higher wages would mean $30 Big Macs, but other first world nations do not have this issue because that have not fetishized Capitalism and billionaire culture at the expense of the common man. The root of the problem has always been rampant unfettered Capitalism. America would really rather throw itself into sweatshop peonage than just tax the rich.

 

[Grav]

So if capitalism is the root of the bad what is the alternative? I don't see how the tariffs are declared a disaster considering it's been under a month?

 

[GhostInTheMachine]

Note that I said *unfettered* Capitalism. I see no inherent issue with markets, commerce, money, etc. There is always a balance that must be struck between allowing the accumulation of wealth, and mitigating the immense disparity that financial interests tend to lead to. North America very visibly struggles with this, while Europe has reigned in a notable portion of it. Globally however, corporate interest has allowed the working class to be left behind due to the assumption that labor rights are just not valuable.

Also note that I said tariffs are *going to be* a disaster, as we're already seeing the market strain under them which is primarily being driven by the sheer inconsistency of their application. I have already provided information (articles, videos) in my previous posts, but the general gist is that even if they stabilize, the increased barrier of entry to business caused by them will ravage all but the largest businesses, further fueling wealth disparity. Combined with a lack of even a "concept of a plan", all we're doing is charging Americans more for what they already buy while not bringing back any meaningful job opportunities/incentives to offset that increased cost.

At any point, the administration can fold their hand and try to run things regularly, but we've already turned what was going to be a likely recession into an upcoming near-depression for nothing more than ignoring the emperor has no clothes.

 

[AnxiousAutist]

To answer that question, you should see how the narrative has shifted around the economy. It really seems like every few weeks, the outlook gets worse. No one was even talking about a recession before late February or so, now we have negative GDP growth and a serious risk of trucking layoffs because no one is ordering anything from China because of the insane tariffs. At this rate, I'm expecting a second Great Depression. The Smoot-Hawley tariffs caused massive damage when we still had a trade surplus, and the Chinese tariffs have made our effective tariff rate even higher.

For that matter, the fact that Trump is still doubling down on the China tariffs confirms my worst fears that he'd be too stubborn to change course.

Until more time passes nobody will know if this is good or bad. Economists all have their angle, some promote communism, others total unfettered free trade, no taxes, high taxes, etc and pull out their numbers to prove it. Not saying they're idiots, I just half liaten to what they say. I'd like to see a more solid approach to bringing back manufacturing along with real hard talk about it. I know where I live teaching kids about civics and finance is way out of style so the populace has no clue. Anyone remember when China threatened to cut off shipments of medicine and supplies when they were brought up as the source for making covid? People did a "huh, what?" And it was quickly forgotten. The US is willing to buy cheap goods while talking crap about wages here being so low. Maybe things shouldn't be as cheap as they are? There is a whole segment of society that needs the manufacturing jobs and ignoring that for another iphone version isn't helping anyone and instead doing more long term damage.

Name me an economist who promotes communism. For that matter, people (rightfully) complained about the horrible conditions of Chinese factories for years, but they've allowed a lot of small businesses to sell things in this country. I'd love to see how many Americans would be willing to work in conditions anything like that when we can barely get (legal) American to work as farmhands or construction workers.

 

[LostLily]

His economic policies are effecting me personally because of his disastrous economy policies , my portfolio went down at one point 6k. It recovered a bit but it is still down.

Grr, I wanted to leave that money to my family when I go.