Is conventional wisdom on average most often right?

[noname223]

I think this is a tough question and chatGPT could probably give a better answer than me.

It might depend on the perspective. A socialist or right-wing extreme person will say that conventional wisdom is most often wrong and very distorted.
There will be many enlightend centrists who determine mainstream points and sort of create conventional wisdom.

It might depend on the conventional wisdom we speak about. Media narratives. Or conventional wisdom within particular science communities.

It seems like following the herd is part of our nature. But there were so many examplse where conventional wisdom, knowledge or facts turned out to be completely false. There is always an uncertainty in our considerations and we humans (me included) often underestimate that. Especially if the facts we believe in define our identity and make us part of a community.

I think in order to be an independent thinker one has to leave the general consensus and leave the comfort zone of going with the herd all the time. But there is the risk one ends up as a fool when afterwards everyone makes jokes about you for a bold statement or prediction. I was wrong on my take that Kamala's win is pretty certain. I did not consider it a coin flip election. But with my predictions about Trump's presidency I was thus far right. However, fans of him would vehemently disagree with me on that.

What do you think?

 

[Forever Sleep]

I think the whole concept of wisdom is interesting. Is it something that's learned or, is it something more innate? I feel like we often associate being wise with being old. So that, if a young person seems wise, we often call them an 'old sole'. I think it's maybe experience of life that makes someone wise as well as being well read and knowledgable.

For instance, I've known very clever people have next to no common sense! Is it really accurate to term them 'wise' if they do something utterly stupid? I think people are wise in different ways too.

As to whether it's right- it likely depends on the person and, how they came about their ideas. Especially in this modern age, with so much fake news about, it's hard to know what to trust and when we are being manipulated. I suppose the wisest of all will freely admit to not knowing much at all!

 

[Gustav Hartmann]

Real progress only happened when the trodden paths were left. For example Johannes Kepler, who dared to think that the planets don´t move on circles, the ideal and God-given orbit. Or Albert Einstein, who accepted the measurements that the speed of light is constant, no matter how the observer is moving. This has nothing to do with wisdom but with creativity and geniality. This ability vanishes when people get older.