DarkRange55
We are now gods but for the wisdom
- Oct 15, 2023
- 2,066
Section 1 — Thesis, Scope, and Methodology
1.1 Thesis
This project measures how an array of taxes, fees, excises, and penalties imposed on households and ordinary consumption in the United States has changed over time and how those changes compare to inflation (CPI) and local cost-of-living indexes. The goal is to see, in concrete numbers, whether these government charges have tracked, lagged, or outrun inflation across decades, not only at the federal level but also across states, counties, and cities.
1.2 What is included
We treat every major government-imposed payment that an ordinary household or driver, traveler, or consumer routinely faces, grouped into categories:
• Income & payroll taxes (federal, state, and city add-ons; FICA wage base).
• Property taxes (state/local).
• Sales & use taxes (state/local).
• Excise / "sin" taxes:
• Motor fuel (gas/diesel federal and state)
• Alcohol (federal and state)
• Tobacco & cigars (federal and state; NYC adders; highest-rate states like MN/VT/UT)
• Cannabis (state only)
• Sugar-sweetened beverages (city only)
• Gambling/lottery (implicit excise)
• Firearms & ammunition (federal 11 % Pittman–Robertson + state fees)
• Lodging / occupancy / hotel surcharges (state/local).
• Vehicle registration & MVET (state/local).
• Tolls & cordon/congestion pricing (NYC bridges/tunnels & CBD toll; Chicago Tollway, etc.).
• Parking fines (NYC, Chicago).
• Court fines & civil penalties (traffic camera, code enforcement).
• Tariffs/duties (average effective federal rates).
• Import/export fees beyond tariffs (Harbor Maintenance Fee, Merchandise Processing Fee).
• Fishing & hunting licenses (state).
Each will be shown in nominal dollars and in real 2025 dollars (CPI-U), and, for metro-to-metro affordability, adjusted with BEA Regional Price Parities (RPP).
1.3 How we will measure
• Inflation adjustment: All historical dollar amounts converted to real 2025-$ using BLS CPI-U (U.S. city average); for some items we'll also show local CPI or RPP.
• Layering: Where a federal excise exists (gasoline, cigarettes, alcohol, firearms) we show the federal layer by itself and then show how state/local surcharges stack on top in a typical out-the-door transaction.
• Timeline: Earliest available year → 2025 for each category.
• Presentation: For each category you'll see
• Today's statutory structure (how the tax/fee is calculated)
• Key rate changes by year
• CPI-adjusted line showing real burden over time
• A one-paragraph interpretation (tracked CPI? lagged? outran?)
• Where appropriate, side-by-side examples (NYC vs Chicago vs Seattle/WA).
1.4 Why these categories
They capture virtually every significant government charge faced by households beyond the price of the good or service itself. Some (like fuel excise or payroll tax wage base) are flat in nominal terms and thus decline in real terms, others (like cigarette taxes or parking fines) show stair-step increases that outpace CPI, and still others (like tariffs or new cordon tolls) have spiked suddenly in the last few years. Looking at them all together gives a true picture of how layered charges accumulate and evolve.
1.5 Data sources (core set)
• BLS CPI-U / FRED (inflation series).
• Tax Foundation & CRS (federal and state tax histories).
• FHWA / IRS / TTB / USFWS / USITC / CBP (federal excises, tariffs, import fees).
• State Departments of Revenue / Transportation / Fish & Wildlife (state excises, MVET, licenses).
• MTA Bridges & Tunnels, NYC DOT, Illinois Tollway (tolls).
• NYC & Chicago municipal codes / Department of Finance schedules (parking & civil fines).
• Census State & Local Government Finance series (property taxes).
Section 2 — How the first major taxes and excises have tracked inflation
2.1 Federal motor fuel excise (gasoline & diesel)
Structure and history.
The federal government has levied a per-gallon excise on highway fuels since 1932. The current rates – 18.4 ¢/gal gasoline and 24.4 ¢/gal diesel – were last changed in 1993 and are not indexed to inflation .
Trend in real dollars.
Because the nominal rates have been frozen for more than 30 years, the real burden has dropped sharply: 18.4 ¢ in 1993 has the same purchasing power as roughly 36 ¢ today. In other words, the federal slice per gallon is now worth about half of what it was in 1993 in inflation-adjusted terms.
Takeaway.
Federal motor-fuel taxes have lagged CPI by design. Most of the growth in per-gallon taxes at the pump since the 1990s comes from state excises, many of which are indexed or regularly increased.
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2.2 Federal cigarette excise & state cigar/OTP taxes
Cigarettes (federal).
The federal per-pack tax rose stepwise – 8 ¢ in 1951, 16 ¢ in 1983, 39 ¢ in 2002, and $1.01/pack in April 2009, where it remains . Each hike produced a big real-dollar jump, but because the rate has been flat since 2009, the real burden is now slowly eroding again.
Cigars and other tobacco (state & NYC).
New York State taxes cigars at 75 % of wholesale (OTP). New York City layers on $0.80 for a single cigar and $0.175 for each additional cigar in a package on top of state OTP and sales tax . Some states go even higher on percentage rates – Minnesota 95 % (with per-cigar cap), Vermont 92 %, Utah 86 % – though their effective dollar amounts depend on the caps and wholesale prices.
Takeaway.
Cigarette and OTP taxes have outrun CPI at the moment of each rate increase, then lag until the next hike. Ad-valorem structures (percent of price) on cigars tend to track or exceed CPIautomatically when product prices rise.
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2.3 Federal firearms and ammunition excise
Structure and history.
Under the Pittman–Robertson Act, the federal government levies 11 % on long guns and ammunition and 10 % on handguns at the manufacturer/importer level. This rate has been essentially constant since the 1930s; proceeds go to wildlife restoration programs .
Trend in real dollars.
Because the excise is a percentage of price, the dollar burden per firearm or box of ammo rises as nominal prices rise. Where firearm or ammunition prices have grown faster than CPI (for example during post-2020 shortages), the tax dollars collected per unit have also outpaced CPI even though the statutory rate is unchanged.
Takeaway.
The firearms/ammunition excise tracks or outruns CPI in dollar terms when product prices rise; the percentage rate itself is flat.
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2.4 Tolls and cordon pricing — NYC vs Chicago
NYC.
Passenger-vehicle tolls on MTA bridges and tunnels have been raised periodically, and in January 2025 New York launched Central Business District congestion pricing – $9 peak once per day with E-ZPass in addition to any bridge/tunnel tolls. In real 2025 dollars, the cost to drive into Manhattan has outpaced CPI at each major step-up.
Chicago.
Illinois Tollway passenger-car tolls saw a major increase in 2012. Commercial-vehicle tolls have been indexed to CPI since 2018, producing a much smoother line in real dollars. Post-2018, the commercial tolls roughly track CPI; passenger-car tolls still show step changes.
Takeaway.
NYC's combined toll + cordon charges have outrun CPI at policy changes. Chicago's indexed tolls are a good example of how automatic adjustments can make rates track inflation instead of eroding or spiking.
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2.5 Parking fines — NYC vs Chicago
NYC.
Current examples: Expired Muni-Meter $35 (most areas)/$65 (Manhattan ≤96th St); No Standing (Commercial Meter Zone) $115; highest category $515. A citywide increase in October 2002created a clear step up in real terms. Between hikes, fines remain flat in nominal dollars and decline in real dollars.
Chicago.
Today: Expired meter $70 in the CBD, $50 outside. Historical anchors: mid-2000s CBD $50 / $30 non-CBD; 2012 "city sticker" violation jump from $120 to $200. Same staircase pattern as NYC.
Takeaway.
Municipal fines behave like unindexed excises: outpace CPI at each ordinance change, then lag until the next change.
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2.6 Patterns emerging from Wave 1
• Flat per-unit federal excises (gasoline, cigarettes after 2009) steadily lose real value unless Congress raises them.
• Ad-valorem excises (cigars, firearms/ammo) tend to rise automatically with nominal prices, so they more closely track or outrun CPI.
• Indexed regimes (like Illinois Tollway commercial rates) move in lockstep with inflation, avoiding the step-up/erosion pattern.
• Municipal fines show a "staircase": sudden jumps outpacing CPI followed by erosion.
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Section 3 — Alcohol, Cannabis, Sales/Use & Lodging, Property Taxes
3.1 Alcohol excise (federal + WA as a high-burden state example)
How it's computed (point of sale).
• Federal (TTB): per-unit excise (e.g., spirits $13.50 per proof gallon; beer/wine tiered). Not CPI-indexed.
• Washington State (retail spirits): two stacked state taxes at the register in addition togeneral sales tax: 20.5% spirits sales tax + $3.7708 per liter spirits liter tax; on-premise purchases face a different per-liter rate.
What this means in practice.
• Because WA uses both an ad-valorem % (which rises with shelf price) and a specific $/L levy (which erodes in real terms unless raised), the effective tax load on a typical bottle can exceed ~50% in high-sales-tax cities like Seattle (10.35%).
Inflation verdict.
• Federal per-unit rates: lag CPI over time (unchanged nominal rates lose real value).
• WA retail structure (20.5% + $/L + sales tax): the % piece tracks/outruns CPI when product prices rise, while the $/L piece lags—net effect is often ≥ CPI at the register.
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3.2 Cannabis excise (state only; WA & CA)
Washington.
• Statutory 37% retail excise on each cannabis sale, separate from state/local sales tax (so Seattle buyers effectively face ~37% + 10.35% layered). Medical exemptions exist for qualifying patients.
California (recent change).
• The planned 2025 move to 19% was suspended; AB 564 holds the excise at 15% from Oct 1, 2025 through Jun 30, 2028 (it remained 19% only Jul 1–Sep 30, 2025). Local cannabis business taxes may layer on top.
Inflation verdict.
• Price-based % excises (WA 37%, CA 15%) tend to track or outrun CPI with nominal price increases. Where states cut or cap rates (e.g., CA's reversion to 15%), the real burden may fall vs CPI absent product price increases.
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3.3 Sales & use taxes (quick anchor for metro examples)
• Seattle combined rate (2025): 10.35% (state 6.5% + local ≈ 3.85%). High among large metros.
Inflation verdict.
• Sales/use taxes are ad-valorem: dollar burden rises mechanically with nominal prices. Over long spans, that tracks or outruns CPI on the taxed consumption basket.
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3.4 Lodging / hotel occupancy stacks (Seattle example; structure matters)
Seattle (how the stack works).
• Washington allows layered hotel-motel (lodging) taxes for convention/tourism; Seattle's maximum combined lodging rate is ~15.2% under RCW caps, with district add-ons like the downtown STIA 2.3% assessment often appearing on bills (assessment = separate line, not a "tax" rate per se).
• WA DOR also catalogs special local hotel-motel taxes (2% basic tax; additional amounts by jurisdiction and room count).
Inflation verdict.
• Because most lodging charges are % of room rate, dollar burden tracks/outruns CPI as room prices rise (especially in high-demand years). Fixed-fee adders (if any) lag CPI unless updated.
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3.5 Sugar-sweetened beverage (soda) taxes (city excises)
• Seattle: 1.75¢/oz (with a 1.0¢/oz reduced rate for certified manufacturers).
• Philadelphia: 1.5¢/oz (distributor level; calculated on the final beverage produced).
• Boulder: 2.0¢/oz.
Inflation verdict.
• These are specific (cents/oz) and generally not indexed → lag CPI steadily unless the city resets rates. (Academic evaluations note sustained implementation and pass-through dynamics.)
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3.6 Property taxes (state & local only)
What we'll measure in the charts that follow.
• Per-capita property tax collections (inflation-adjusted) from the Census State & Local Government Finance series—long time span, apples-to-apples.
• Effective property tax rates on homes by state/county (Tax Foundation summaries, ATTOM/Kiplinger for current effective rates; e.g., NJ high, HI low).
Behavior vs inflation.
• Property taxes are driven by assessed values × millage. Assessments tend to follow market values, which don't move in lockstep with CPI. Over long periods in hot markets, **collections per capita in real terms often outrun CPI; in downturns they can lag. (We'll show U.S. collections over time from Census/FRED.)
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3.7 Quick pattern reads (for these four)
• Ad-valorem % systems (alcohol % pieces, cannabis, lodging %, sales/use): track or outrun CPI as nominal prices/rates rise.
• Specific per-unit systems (soda cents/oz, per-liter alcohol component): lag CPI unless adjusted.
• Property tax is market-linked rather than CPI-linked; in expansions, real collections commonly outpace CPI; in slumps, they fall behind.
Section 4 — Income, Payroll & Social Security; Sales/Use; Lodging; Import Fees; Tariffs; Welfare Context
4.1 Federal income, payroll & Social Security taxes
Federal income tax.
Progressive brackets and the standard deduction are indexed annually. For a household with the same real income, bracket thresholds generally rise with CPI, so liability tends to track inflation absent major legislation. Big laws (like the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act) create a one-time real shift, after which indexing resumes.
Payroll tax (FICA).
• OASDI (Social Security): 6.2 % on wages up to an annual wage base, matched by employers (12.4 % total). The wage base rises each year under a wage-indexing formula.
– Recent figures: $147,000 (2022) → $160,200 (2023) → $168,600 (2024) → $176,100 (2025).
– Rates have been 6.2 % each since 1990 except for a temporary 2011–2012 "holiday" when the employee portion dropped to 4.2 % while the employer stayed at 6.2 %.
• Medicare: 1.45 % on all wages (no cap) + 0.9 % additional surtax at higher incomes.
Inflation verdict.
• Brackets & standard deduction: generally track CPI by design.
• OASDI wage base: indexed to national average wage, which usually grows slightly faster than CPI, so the covered wage base rises in real terms and the absolute dollar contribution increases over time.
• Rates themselves are flat (aside from the 2011–2012 holiday), so the real burden per dollar of covered wage is stable except for policy changes.
Takeaway.
Federal income-tax and Social Security systems are among the few large revenue streams that track inflation automatically, punctuated by policy step changes.
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4.2 Sales & use taxes — high vs low and inflation behavior
Because they're % of price, sales/use taxes track or outrun CPI automatically on taxable consumption. Local voters/councils occasionally raise rates, producing step increases above the inflation trend. High combined rates in places like Seattle (~10.35 %) versus zero state rate in Oregon illustrate the spread.
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4.3 Lodging / hotel occupancy — NYC detail & inflation read
A typical Manhattan hotel bill reflects multiple % layers (NY State, NYC sales/occupancy) plus a per-night NYC Hotel Unit Fee (flat dollar).
• % layers naturally track or outrun CPI with room-rate inflation.
• Fixed per-night fees lag CPI unless updated.
• New layers (convention center surcharges, tourism assessments) cause step-ups in the total burden.
Seattle comparison note.
Washington law (RCW 67.28.181) caps the maximum combined lodging tax rate at 15.2 %, not counting certain high-capacity transit sales-tax shares. Seattle sits under that cap but layers multiple assessments; effective tax/fee can approach the statutory max.
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4.4 Import/Export fees beyond tariffs — MPF & HMF
• Merchandise Processing Fee (MPF): 0.3464 % ad valorem with minimum and maximum per entry (FY 2025 min ≈ $33.58, max ≈ $651.50, effective Oct 1 2025). Small shipments lag CPI via the min; large shipments track nominal values via the % charge.
• Harbor Maintenance Fee (HMF): 0.125 % ad valorem; dollar burden tracks goods values.
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4.5 Tariffs/duties — inflation context
Average effective tariff rates have stepped up in recent years (2018, 2025), outpacing CPI at policy change points, then flattening in between. Like fines/excises, they show stair-step increases above CPI when policy changes and real erosion until the next change.
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4.6 Welfare and transfer programs (context)
Although not taxes, transfer programs affect net household burden.
• Indexed benefits: Social Security and SSI benefits have annual COLAs tied to CPI-W; SNAP benefits are adjusted annually to the Thrifty Food Plan cost (tracks food inflation).
• Non-indexed grants: TANF block grant has been nominally flat since the 1990s, so real value has eroded sharply.
• Medical programs: Medicaid grows with medical inflation rather than CPI.
We will show taxes/fees/fines on the "government take" side and can add a companion panel of real per-capita welfare benefits to illustrate how the "give" side tracks inflation compared with the "take."
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4.7 Pattern reads (this section)
• Indexed systems (income brackets, standard deduction, OASDI wage base, many benefit COLAs) ⇒ track CPI (sometimes slightly faster for wage-indexed bases).
• Ad-valorem % systems (sales/use, lodging %, HMF) ⇒ track or outrun CPI with nominal price gains.
• Specific fees (fixed hotel fees, MPF minimums) ⇒ lag CPI unless updated.
• Policy-driven layers (tariffs, new lodging adders, TANF flat grant) ⇒ step above CPI at enactment, then erode in real terms.
Section 5 (Revised) — Vehicle Registration/MVET; Fishing & Hunting Licenses; Lottery & Gambling; Civil Fines
5.1 Vehicle Registration / MVET (Seattle area vs smaller town)
How it works.
• Washington State applies a Regional Transit Authority Motor Vehicle Excise Tax (RTA MVET) at 1.1% of vehicle value annually in the Sound Transit / RTA district (effective Mar 1, 2017) on top of base registration fees.
• Outside the RTA, vehicle owners pay standard state/county registration fees (flat or per-vehicle based) without that MVET layer.
Example contrast (adjusted).
For a vehicle valued around $40,000, 1.1% MVET would add about $440/year in Seattle-area tab fees alone (plus other registration/weight/etc. fees), whereas in a comparable smaller town in WA without the MVET the fee might be limited to state/local registration only (often under $100-$200) depending on local fees.
Inflation verdict.
• Flat per-vehicle registration fees lag CPI unless increased by state/local law.
• The MVET % of value layer tracks or outruns CPI because new vehicle value (or taxable valuation schedule) tends to rise with vehicle price inflation.
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5.2 Fishing & Hunting Licenses (Washington)
• Standard resident combination fishing license (freshwater + saltwater) $62.79 starting July 1, 2025. Big game hunting license ~$117.30. First time fee increase since 2011.
• Other fees (nonresident, short-term licenses, endorsements, permits) similarly raised. WA Dept. Fish & Wildlife confirms detailed tables.
Inflation verdict.
Fee schedules are statutory, updated infrequently. Therefore between increases, real cost lags inflation; at increases, fees jump above CPI. Over long spans, real price of licenses tends to erode if increases are rare.
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5.3 Lottery & Gambling (implicit excise)
• In most states, lotteries return 50-70% of revenues to prize winners, average being about ~60%; remainder goes to state revenue, prizes, administration.
• Variability is high: types of games (jackpots vs scratch-off) and game design affect payout ratio and implicit tax.
Inflation verdict.
If ticket prices remain flat for years, the implicit tax per ticket declines in real terms. When states raise prices or change payout ratios, that bump can outpace CPI. Casino GGR taxes (where state taxes % of revenue) tend to track inflation with nominal wager increases.
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5.4 Court / Civil Fines beyond parking
• Data for specific cities on traffic camera, code enforcement, administrative fees are partial; many fines are set by ordinance and updated by legislative action.
• Where schedules exist, we see similar patterns: flat nominal values for periods, then ordinance increases giving step‐ups above CPI.
Inflation verdict.
Same "staircase" pattern: lag in real value between increases, real jumps at adoption of new schedules.
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5.5 Quick pattern reads (this section, revised)
• Vehicle Registration/MVET: mixed; %-based MVET tracks CPI; flat fees lag.
• Fishing & hunting licenses: lag between updates; jump at renewals.
• Lottery: average payout ratio ~60%; implicit tax per ticket tends to decline in real terms unless adjusted.
• Civil fines: step-ups when updated; otherwise real erosion.
Section 6
Comprehensive Summary: U.S. Taxes, Fees, and Quasi-Taxes vs. Inflation
This rough analysis examines how virtually every major tax, fee, fine, and quasi-tax imposed on ordinary households in the United States has behaved over time relative to inflation (CPI) and, where relevant, local cost-of-living indexes. We assembled statutory histories and current rates for federal, state, and local charges across a very broad set of categories — from per-gallon fuel excises to hotel-room surcharges, from vehicle tabs to gambling proceeds — and classified them as either unindexed fixed amounts, ad-valorem percentages, or indexed systems. That classification largely determines whether the real burden lags, tracks, or outruns inflation.
Scope
We covered:
• Income and payroll taxes (including Social Security)
• Property taxes
• Sales and use taxes
• Excise / "sin" taxes (fuel, alcohol, tobacco/cigars, cannabis, sugar-sweetened beverages, firearms & ammunition, gambling/lottery)
• Lodging / hotel occupancy surcharges
• Vehicle registration and MVET (Seattle vs. non-RTA towns)
• Fishing & hunting licenses
• Tolls and cordon pricing (NYC vs. Chicago)
• Parking and other civil fines
• Import/export fees beyond tariffs (MPF & HMF)
• Tariffs/duties
• Transfer programs (welfare context) for net-burden contrast
Key Findings by Category
• Unindexed fixed taxes and fees lag CPI unless raised.
Examples: federal gasoline excise (18.4¢/gal unchanged since 1993), federal cigarette tax after 2009, fixed hotel fees, flat parking fines, flat fishing-license fees. These steadily lose real value between legislative increases; when raised, the real burden jumps above CPI then begins eroding again.
• Ad-valorem percentages track or outrun CPI automatically.
Examples: sales/use taxes, lodging percentage taxes, state OTP/cigar taxes (75–95% of wholesale), Washington's 37% cannabis tax, New York's new congestion toll ($9 peak once/day), the 11% firearms/ammo excise, MVET 1.1% of vehicle value, HMF 0.125%. Because the percentage stays fixed but the base price rises, the real dollar burden rises in tandem with inflation or faster if the taxed product's price grows faster than CPI.
• Indexed systems track inflation by design.
Examples: federal income-tax brackets and standard deduction (CPI-U), Social Security's wage base (indexed to national average wage, typically a bit faster than CPI), Illinois Tollway commercial vehicle tolls (annual CPI adjustments), and many major welfare benefits (Social Security COLA, SNAP benefit formula). These avoid real erosion and move roughly parallel to inflation.
• Policy-driven "layers" cause discrete real jumps.
Examples: NYC's 2025 congestion charge on top of existing tolls, major 2002 NYC fine increases, Washington's 2025 hunting/fishing fee hike, large tariff waves in 2018 and 2025. These changes push the real burden abruptly above the prior trend.
• Property taxes behave differently.
They're based on assessed values × millage rates. Assessments tend to follow real estate markets, not CPI, so in boom periods real per-capita property-tax collections outrun CPI; in slumps they can lag.
• Lottery and gambling are an implicit excise.
States typically retain ~40% of ticket sales as net revenue. Ticket prices often stay fixed for years, so the implicit tax per ticket declines in real terms unless ticket denominations rise or payout ratios fall. Casino/sports-betting taxes (as % of GGR) move with nominal wagering volumes and so track inflation.
• Transfer (welfare) programs are the opposite side of the ledger.
Many big programs are indexed (Social Security, SSI, SNAP) and thus keep pace with or slightly outrun CPI. Others (TANF block grant) have been flat in nominal dollars for decades, eroding sharply in real terms. Including this context shows how the government's "give" side behaves compared with its "take" side.
Patterns That Emerge
1. Cents-per-unit excises (gasoline, cigarette packs, per-liter alcohol, fixed soda cents/oz) → lag CPI steadily unless lawmakers reset them.
2. Percent-of-price excises and taxes (sales, lodging %, cannabis %, MVET %, firearms %) → track or outrun CPI automatically as prices rise.
3. Indexed thresholds (income-tax brackets, Social Security wage base, CPI-indexed tolls) → track CPI by design.
4. Fines and fees (parking, civil violations, licenses) → "staircase" pattern: flat nominal values, real erosion, then a step-up at the next ordinance increase.
5. Property tax → moves with property markets, not CPI.
6. Tariffs → step increases at policy changes, then flat; real burden erodes until next change.
What This Means
Looking across all categories reveals a layered system where some charges quietly erode in real terms while others automatically escalate with prices or jump when new policies are enacted. For households, the combined burden feels uneven: at the pump or for a license you may be paying less in real terms than decades ago, while on a hotel bill, cannabis purchase, or vehicle tab in an RTA district you may be paying more in real dollars than ever before. Meanwhile, major transfer programs partially offset this for some households, but only where benefits are indexed.
1.1 Thesis
This project measures how an array of taxes, fees, excises, and penalties imposed on households and ordinary consumption in the United States has changed over time and how those changes compare to inflation (CPI) and local cost-of-living indexes. The goal is to see, in concrete numbers, whether these government charges have tracked, lagged, or outrun inflation across decades, not only at the federal level but also across states, counties, and cities.
1.2 What is included
We treat every major government-imposed payment that an ordinary household or driver, traveler, or consumer routinely faces, grouped into categories:
• Income & payroll taxes (federal, state, and city add-ons; FICA wage base).
• Property taxes (state/local).
• Sales & use taxes (state/local).
• Excise / "sin" taxes:
• Motor fuel (gas/diesel federal and state)
• Alcohol (federal and state)
• Tobacco & cigars (federal and state; NYC adders; highest-rate states like MN/VT/UT)
• Cannabis (state only)
• Sugar-sweetened beverages (city only)
• Gambling/lottery (implicit excise)
• Firearms & ammunition (federal 11 % Pittman–Robertson + state fees)
• Lodging / occupancy / hotel surcharges (state/local).
• Vehicle registration & MVET (state/local).
• Tolls & cordon/congestion pricing (NYC bridges/tunnels & CBD toll; Chicago Tollway, etc.).
• Parking fines (NYC, Chicago).
• Court fines & civil penalties (traffic camera, code enforcement).
• Tariffs/duties (average effective federal rates).
• Import/export fees beyond tariffs (Harbor Maintenance Fee, Merchandise Processing Fee).
• Fishing & hunting licenses (state).
Each will be shown in nominal dollars and in real 2025 dollars (CPI-U), and, for metro-to-metro affordability, adjusted with BEA Regional Price Parities (RPP).
1.3 How we will measure
• Inflation adjustment: All historical dollar amounts converted to real 2025-$ using BLS CPI-U (U.S. city average); for some items we'll also show local CPI or RPP.
• Layering: Where a federal excise exists (gasoline, cigarettes, alcohol, firearms) we show the federal layer by itself and then show how state/local surcharges stack on top in a typical out-the-door transaction.
• Timeline: Earliest available year → 2025 for each category.
• Presentation: For each category you'll see
• Today's statutory structure (how the tax/fee is calculated)
• Key rate changes by year
• CPI-adjusted line showing real burden over time
• A one-paragraph interpretation (tracked CPI? lagged? outran?)
• Where appropriate, side-by-side examples (NYC vs Chicago vs Seattle/WA).
1.4 Why these categories
They capture virtually every significant government charge faced by households beyond the price of the good or service itself. Some (like fuel excise or payroll tax wage base) are flat in nominal terms and thus decline in real terms, others (like cigarette taxes or parking fines) show stair-step increases that outpace CPI, and still others (like tariffs or new cordon tolls) have spiked suddenly in the last few years. Looking at them all together gives a true picture of how layered charges accumulate and evolve.
1.5 Data sources (core set)
• BLS CPI-U / FRED (inflation series).
• Tax Foundation & CRS (federal and state tax histories).
• FHWA / IRS / TTB / USFWS / USITC / CBP (federal excises, tariffs, import fees).
• State Departments of Revenue / Transportation / Fish & Wildlife (state excises, MVET, licenses).
• MTA Bridges & Tunnels, NYC DOT, Illinois Tollway (tolls).
• NYC & Chicago municipal codes / Department of Finance schedules (parking & civil fines).
• Census State & Local Government Finance series (property taxes).
Section 2 — How the first major taxes and excises have tracked inflation
2.1 Federal motor fuel excise (gasoline & diesel)
Structure and history.
The federal government has levied a per-gallon excise on highway fuels since 1932. The current rates – 18.4 ¢/gal gasoline and 24.4 ¢/gal diesel – were last changed in 1993 and are not indexed to inflation .
Trend in real dollars.
Because the nominal rates have been frozen for more than 30 years, the real burden has dropped sharply: 18.4 ¢ in 1993 has the same purchasing power as roughly 36 ¢ today. In other words, the federal slice per gallon is now worth about half of what it was in 1993 in inflation-adjusted terms.
Takeaway.
Federal motor-fuel taxes have lagged CPI by design. Most of the growth in per-gallon taxes at the pump since the 1990s comes from state excises, many of which are indexed or regularly increased.
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2.2 Federal cigarette excise & state cigar/OTP taxes
Cigarettes (federal).
The federal per-pack tax rose stepwise – 8 ¢ in 1951, 16 ¢ in 1983, 39 ¢ in 2002, and $1.01/pack in April 2009, where it remains . Each hike produced a big real-dollar jump, but because the rate has been flat since 2009, the real burden is now slowly eroding again.
Cigars and other tobacco (state & NYC).
New York State taxes cigars at 75 % of wholesale (OTP). New York City layers on $0.80 for a single cigar and $0.175 for each additional cigar in a package on top of state OTP and sales tax . Some states go even higher on percentage rates – Minnesota 95 % (with per-cigar cap), Vermont 92 %, Utah 86 % – though their effective dollar amounts depend on the caps and wholesale prices.
Takeaway.
Cigarette and OTP taxes have outrun CPI at the moment of each rate increase, then lag until the next hike. Ad-valorem structures (percent of price) on cigars tend to track or exceed CPIautomatically when product prices rise.
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2.3 Federal firearms and ammunition excise
Structure and history.
Under the Pittman–Robertson Act, the federal government levies 11 % on long guns and ammunition and 10 % on handguns at the manufacturer/importer level. This rate has been essentially constant since the 1930s; proceeds go to wildlife restoration programs .
Trend in real dollars.
Because the excise is a percentage of price, the dollar burden per firearm or box of ammo rises as nominal prices rise. Where firearm or ammunition prices have grown faster than CPI (for example during post-2020 shortages), the tax dollars collected per unit have also outpaced CPI even though the statutory rate is unchanged.
Takeaway.
The firearms/ammunition excise tracks or outruns CPI in dollar terms when product prices rise; the percentage rate itself is flat.
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2.4 Tolls and cordon pricing — NYC vs Chicago
NYC.
Passenger-vehicle tolls on MTA bridges and tunnels have been raised periodically, and in January 2025 New York launched Central Business District congestion pricing – $9 peak once per day with E-ZPass in addition to any bridge/tunnel tolls. In real 2025 dollars, the cost to drive into Manhattan has outpaced CPI at each major step-up.
Chicago.
Illinois Tollway passenger-car tolls saw a major increase in 2012. Commercial-vehicle tolls have been indexed to CPI since 2018, producing a much smoother line in real dollars. Post-2018, the commercial tolls roughly track CPI; passenger-car tolls still show step changes.
Takeaway.
NYC's combined toll + cordon charges have outrun CPI at policy changes. Chicago's indexed tolls are a good example of how automatic adjustments can make rates track inflation instead of eroding or spiking.
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2.5 Parking fines — NYC vs Chicago
NYC.
Current examples: Expired Muni-Meter $35 (most areas)/$65 (Manhattan ≤96th St); No Standing (Commercial Meter Zone) $115; highest category $515. A citywide increase in October 2002created a clear step up in real terms. Between hikes, fines remain flat in nominal dollars and decline in real dollars.
Chicago.
Today: Expired meter $70 in the CBD, $50 outside. Historical anchors: mid-2000s CBD $50 / $30 non-CBD; 2012 "city sticker" violation jump from $120 to $200. Same staircase pattern as NYC.
Takeaway.
Municipal fines behave like unindexed excises: outpace CPI at each ordinance change, then lag until the next change.
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2.6 Patterns emerging from Wave 1
• Flat per-unit federal excises (gasoline, cigarettes after 2009) steadily lose real value unless Congress raises them.
• Ad-valorem excises (cigars, firearms/ammo) tend to rise automatically with nominal prices, so they more closely track or outrun CPI.
• Indexed regimes (like Illinois Tollway commercial rates) move in lockstep with inflation, avoiding the step-up/erosion pattern.
• Municipal fines show a "staircase": sudden jumps outpacing CPI followed by erosion.
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Section 3 — Alcohol, Cannabis, Sales/Use & Lodging, Property Taxes
3.1 Alcohol excise (federal + WA as a high-burden state example)
How it's computed (point of sale).
• Federal (TTB): per-unit excise (e.g., spirits $13.50 per proof gallon; beer/wine tiered). Not CPI-indexed.
• Washington State (retail spirits): two stacked state taxes at the register in addition togeneral sales tax: 20.5% spirits sales tax + $3.7708 per liter spirits liter tax; on-premise purchases face a different per-liter rate.
What this means in practice.
• Because WA uses both an ad-valorem % (which rises with shelf price) and a specific $/L levy (which erodes in real terms unless raised), the effective tax load on a typical bottle can exceed ~50% in high-sales-tax cities like Seattle (10.35%).
Inflation verdict.
• Federal per-unit rates: lag CPI over time (unchanged nominal rates lose real value).
• WA retail structure (20.5% + $/L + sales tax): the % piece tracks/outruns CPI when product prices rise, while the $/L piece lags—net effect is often ≥ CPI at the register.
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3.2 Cannabis excise (state only; WA & CA)
Washington.
• Statutory 37% retail excise on each cannabis sale, separate from state/local sales tax (so Seattle buyers effectively face ~37% + 10.35% layered). Medical exemptions exist for qualifying patients.
California (recent change).
• The planned 2025 move to 19% was suspended; AB 564 holds the excise at 15% from Oct 1, 2025 through Jun 30, 2028 (it remained 19% only Jul 1–Sep 30, 2025). Local cannabis business taxes may layer on top.
Inflation verdict.
• Price-based % excises (WA 37%, CA 15%) tend to track or outrun CPI with nominal price increases. Where states cut or cap rates (e.g., CA's reversion to 15%), the real burden may fall vs CPI absent product price increases.
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3.3 Sales & use taxes (quick anchor for metro examples)
• Seattle combined rate (2025): 10.35% (state 6.5% + local ≈ 3.85%). High among large metros.
Inflation verdict.
• Sales/use taxes are ad-valorem: dollar burden rises mechanically with nominal prices. Over long spans, that tracks or outruns CPI on the taxed consumption basket.
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3.4 Lodging / hotel occupancy stacks (Seattle example; structure matters)
Seattle (how the stack works).
• Washington allows layered hotel-motel (lodging) taxes for convention/tourism; Seattle's maximum combined lodging rate is ~15.2% under RCW caps, with district add-ons like the downtown STIA 2.3% assessment often appearing on bills (assessment = separate line, not a "tax" rate per se).
• WA DOR also catalogs special local hotel-motel taxes (2% basic tax; additional amounts by jurisdiction and room count).
Inflation verdict.
• Because most lodging charges are % of room rate, dollar burden tracks/outruns CPI as room prices rise (especially in high-demand years). Fixed-fee adders (if any) lag CPI unless updated.
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3.5 Sugar-sweetened beverage (soda) taxes (city excises)
• Seattle: 1.75¢/oz (with a 1.0¢/oz reduced rate for certified manufacturers).
• Philadelphia: 1.5¢/oz (distributor level; calculated on the final beverage produced).
• Boulder: 2.0¢/oz.
Inflation verdict.
• These are specific (cents/oz) and generally not indexed → lag CPI steadily unless the city resets rates. (Academic evaluations note sustained implementation and pass-through dynamics.)
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3.6 Property taxes (state & local only)
What we'll measure in the charts that follow.
• Per-capita property tax collections (inflation-adjusted) from the Census State & Local Government Finance series—long time span, apples-to-apples.
• Effective property tax rates on homes by state/county (Tax Foundation summaries, ATTOM/Kiplinger for current effective rates; e.g., NJ high, HI low).
Behavior vs inflation.
• Property taxes are driven by assessed values × millage. Assessments tend to follow market values, which don't move in lockstep with CPI. Over long periods in hot markets, **collections per capita in real terms often outrun CPI; in downturns they can lag. (We'll show U.S. collections over time from Census/FRED.)
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3.7 Quick pattern reads (for these four)
• Ad-valorem % systems (alcohol % pieces, cannabis, lodging %, sales/use): track or outrun CPI as nominal prices/rates rise.
• Specific per-unit systems (soda cents/oz, per-liter alcohol component): lag CPI unless adjusted.
• Property tax is market-linked rather than CPI-linked; in expansions, real collections commonly outpace CPI; in slumps, they fall behind.
Section 4 — Income, Payroll & Social Security; Sales/Use; Lodging; Import Fees; Tariffs; Welfare Context
4.1 Federal income, payroll & Social Security taxes
Federal income tax.
Progressive brackets and the standard deduction are indexed annually. For a household with the same real income, bracket thresholds generally rise with CPI, so liability tends to track inflation absent major legislation. Big laws (like the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act) create a one-time real shift, after which indexing resumes.
Payroll tax (FICA).
• OASDI (Social Security): 6.2 % on wages up to an annual wage base, matched by employers (12.4 % total). The wage base rises each year under a wage-indexing formula.
– Recent figures: $147,000 (2022) → $160,200 (2023) → $168,600 (2024) → $176,100 (2025).
– Rates have been 6.2 % each since 1990 except for a temporary 2011–2012 "holiday" when the employee portion dropped to 4.2 % while the employer stayed at 6.2 %.
• Medicare: 1.45 % on all wages (no cap) + 0.9 % additional surtax at higher incomes.
Inflation verdict.
• Brackets & standard deduction: generally track CPI by design.
• OASDI wage base: indexed to national average wage, which usually grows slightly faster than CPI, so the covered wage base rises in real terms and the absolute dollar contribution increases over time.
• Rates themselves are flat (aside from the 2011–2012 holiday), so the real burden per dollar of covered wage is stable except for policy changes.
Takeaway.
Federal income-tax and Social Security systems are among the few large revenue streams that track inflation automatically, punctuated by policy step changes.
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4.2 Sales & use taxes — high vs low and inflation behavior
Because they're % of price, sales/use taxes track or outrun CPI automatically on taxable consumption. Local voters/councils occasionally raise rates, producing step increases above the inflation trend. High combined rates in places like Seattle (~10.35 %) versus zero state rate in Oregon illustrate the spread.
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4.3 Lodging / hotel occupancy — NYC detail & inflation read
A typical Manhattan hotel bill reflects multiple % layers (NY State, NYC sales/occupancy) plus a per-night NYC Hotel Unit Fee (flat dollar).
• % layers naturally track or outrun CPI with room-rate inflation.
• Fixed per-night fees lag CPI unless updated.
• New layers (convention center surcharges, tourism assessments) cause step-ups in the total burden.
Seattle comparison note.
Washington law (RCW 67.28.181) caps the maximum combined lodging tax rate at 15.2 %, not counting certain high-capacity transit sales-tax shares. Seattle sits under that cap but layers multiple assessments; effective tax/fee can approach the statutory max.
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4.4 Import/Export fees beyond tariffs — MPF & HMF
• Merchandise Processing Fee (MPF): 0.3464 % ad valorem with minimum and maximum per entry (FY 2025 min ≈ $33.58, max ≈ $651.50, effective Oct 1 2025). Small shipments lag CPI via the min; large shipments track nominal values via the % charge.
• Harbor Maintenance Fee (HMF): 0.125 % ad valorem; dollar burden tracks goods values.
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4.5 Tariffs/duties — inflation context
Average effective tariff rates have stepped up in recent years (2018, 2025), outpacing CPI at policy change points, then flattening in between. Like fines/excises, they show stair-step increases above CPI when policy changes and real erosion until the next change.
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4.6 Welfare and transfer programs (context)
Although not taxes, transfer programs affect net household burden.
• Indexed benefits: Social Security and SSI benefits have annual COLAs tied to CPI-W; SNAP benefits are adjusted annually to the Thrifty Food Plan cost (tracks food inflation).
• Non-indexed grants: TANF block grant has been nominally flat since the 1990s, so real value has eroded sharply.
• Medical programs: Medicaid grows with medical inflation rather than CPI.
We will show taxes/fees/fines on the "government take" side and can add a companion panel of real per-capita welfare benefits to illustrate how the "give" side tracks inflation compared with the "take."
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4.7 Pattern reads (this section)
• Indexed systems (income brackets, standard deduction, OASDI wage base, many benefit COLAs) ⇒ track CPI (sometimes slightly faster for wage-indexed bases).
• Ad-valorem % systems (sales/use, lodging %, HMF) ⇒ track or outrun CPI with nominal price gains.
• Specific fees (fixed hotel fees, MPF minimums) ⇒ lag CPI unless updated.
• Policy-driven layers (tariffs, new lodging adders, TANF flat grant) ⇒ step above CPI at enactment, then erode in real terms.
Section 5 (Revised) — Vehicle Registration/MVET; Fishing & Hunting Licenses; Lottery & Gambling; Civil Fines
5.1 Vehicle Registration / MVET (Seattle area vs smaller town)
How it works.
• Washington State applies a Regional Transit Authority Motor Vehicle Excise Tax (RTA MVET) at 1.1% of vehicle value annually in the Sound Transit / RTA district (effective Mar 1, 2017) on top of base registration fees.
• Outside the RTA, vehicle owners pay standard state/county registration fees (flat or per-vehicle based) without that MVET layer.
Example contrast (adjusted).
For a vehicle valued around $40,000, 1.1% MVET would add about $440/year in Seattle-area tab fees alone (plus other registration/weight/etc. fees), whereas in a comparable smaller town in WA without the MVET the fee might be limited to state/local registration only (often under $100-$200) depending on local fees.
Inflation verdict.
• Flat per-vehicle registration fees lag CPI unless increased by state/local law.
• The MVET % of value layer tracks or outruns CPI because new vehicle value (or taxable valuation schedule) tends to rise with vehicle price inflation.
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5.2 Fishing & Hunting Licenses (Washington)
• Standard resident combination fishing license (freshwater + saltwater) $62.79 starting July 1, 2025. Big game hunting license ~$117.30. First time fee increase since 2011.
• Other fees (nonresident, short-term licenses, endorsements, permits) similarly raised. WA Dept. Fish & Wildlife confirms detailed tables.
Inflation verdict.
Fee schedules are statutory, updated infrequently. Therefore between increases, real cost lags inflation; at increases, fees jump above CPI. Over long spans, real price of licenses tends to erode if increases are rare.
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5.3 Lottery & Gambling (implicit excise)
• In most states, lotteries return 50-70% of revenues to prize winners, average being about ~60%; remainder goes to state revenue, prizes, administration.
• Variability is high: types of games (jackpots vs scratch-off) and game design affect payout ratio and implicit tax.
Inflation verdict.
If ticket prices remain flat for years, the implicit tax per ticket declines in real terms. When states raise prices or change payout ratios, that bump can outpace CPI. Casino GGR taxes (where state taxes % of revenue) tend to track inflation with nominal wager increases.
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5.4 Court / Civil Fines beyond parking
• Data for specific cities on traffic camera, code enforcement, administrative fees are partial; many fines are set by ordinance and updated by legislative action.
• Where schedules exist, we see similar patterns: flat nominal values for periods, then ordinance increases giving step‐ups above CPI.
Inflation verdict.
Same "staircase" pattern: lag in real value between increases, real jumps at adoption of new schedules.
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5.5 Quick pattern reads (this section, revised)
• Vehicle Registration/MVET: mixed; %-based MVET tracks CPI; flat fees lag.
• Fishing & hunting licenses: lag between updates; jump at renewals.
• Lottery: average payout ratio ~60%; implicit tax per ticket tends to decline in real terms unless adjusted.
• Civil fines: step-ups when updated; otherwise real erosion.
Section 6
Comprehensive Summary: U.S. Taxes, Fees, and Quasi-Taxes vs. Inflation
This rough analysis examines how virtually every major tax, fee, fine, and quasi-tax imposed on ordinary households in the United States has behaved over time relative to inflation (CPI) and, where relevant, local cost-of-living indexes. We assembled statutory histories and current rates for federal, state, and local charges across a very broad set of categories — from per-gallon fuel excises to hotel-room surcharges, from vehicle tabs to gambling proceeds — and classified them as either unindexed fixed amounts, ad-valorem percentages, or indexed systems. That classification largely determines whether the real burden lags, tracks, or outruns inflation.
Scope
We covered:
• Income and payroll taxes (including Social Security)
• Property taxes
• Sales and use taxes
• Excise / "sin" taxes (fuel, alcohol, tobacco/cigars, cannabis, sugar-sweetened beverages, firearms & ammunition, gambling/lottery)
• Lodging / hotel occupancy surcharges
• Vehicle registration and MVET (Seattle vs. non-RTA towns)
• Fishing & hunting licenses
• Tolls and cordon pricing (NYC vs. Chicago)
• Parking and other civil fines
• Import/export fees beyond tariffs (MPF & HMF)
• Tariffs/duties
• Transfer programs (welfare context) for net-burden contrast
Key Findings by Category
• Unindexed fixed taxes and fees lag CPI unless raised.
Examples: federal gasoline excise (18.4¢/gal unchanged since 1993), federal cigarette tax after 2009, fixed hotel fees, flat parking fines, flat fishing-license fees. These steadily lose real value between legislative increases; when raised, the real burden jumps above CPI then begins eroding again.
• Ad-valorem percentages track or outrun CPI automatically.
Examples: sales/use taxes, lodging percentage taxes, state OTP/cigar taxes (75–95% of wholesale), Washington's 37% cannabis tax, New York's new congestion toll ($9 peak once/day), the 11% firearms/ammo excise, MVET 1.1% of vehicle value, HMF 0.125%. Because the percentage stays fixed but the base price rises, the real dollar burden rises in tandem with inflation or faster if the taxed product's price grows faster than CPI.
• Indexed systems track inflation by design.
Examples: federal income-tax brackets and standard deduction (CPI-U), Social Security's wage base (indexed to national average wage, typically a bit faster than CPI), Illinois Tollway commercial vehicle tolls (annual CPI adjustments), and many major welfare benefits (Social Security COLA, SNAP benefit formula). These avoid real erosion and move roughly parallel to inflation.
• Policy-driven "layers" cause discrete real jumps.
Examples: NYC's 2025 congestion charge on top of existing tolls, major 2002 NYC fine increases, Washington's 2025 hunting/fishing fee hike, large tariff waves in 2018 and 2025. These changes push the real burden abruptly above the prior trend.
• Property taxes behave differently.
They're based on assessed values × millage rates. Assessments tend to follow real estate markets, not CPI, so in boom periods real per-capita property-tax collections outrun CPI; in slumps they can lag.
• Lottery and gambling are an implicit excise.
States typically retain ~40% of ticket sales as net revenue. Ticket prices often stay fixed for years, so the implicit tax per ticket declines in real terms unless ticket denominations rise or payout ratios fall. Casino/sports-betting taxes (as % of GGR) move with nominal wagering volumes and so track inflation.
• Transfer (welfare) programs are the opposite side of the ledger.
Many big programs are indexed (Social Security, SSI, SNAP) and thus keep pace with or slightly outrun CPI. Others (TANF block grant) have been flat in nominal dollars for decades, eroding sharply in real terms. Including this context shows how the government's "give" side behaves compared with its "take" side.
Patterns That Emerge
1. Cents-per-unit excises (gasoline, cigarette packs, per-liter alcohol, fixed soda cents/oz) → lag CPI steadily unless lawmakers reset them.
2. Percent-of-price excises and taxes (sales, lodging %, cannabis %, MVET %, firearms %) → track or outrun CPI automatically as prices rise.
3. Indexed thresholds (income-tax brackets, Social Security wage base, CPI-indexed tolls) → track CPI by design.
4. Fines and fees (parking, civil violations, licenses) → "staircase" pattern: flat nominal values, real erosion, then a step-up at the next ordinance increase.
5. Property tax → moves with property markets, not CPI.
6. Tariffs → step increases at policy changes, then flat; real burden erodes until next change.
What This Means
Looking across all categories reveals a layered system where some charges quietly erode in real terms while others automatically escalate with prices or jump when new policies are enacted. For households, the combined burden feels uneven: at the pump or for a license you may be paying less in real terms than decades ago, while on a hotel bill, cannabis purchase, or vehicle tab in an RTA district you may be paying more in real dollars than ever before. Meanwhile, major transfer programs partially offset this for some households, but only where benefits are indexed.
