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noname223

Archangel
Aug 18, 2020
6,631
Today I read this article. https://www.nzz.ch/wirtschaft/was-k...worten-auf-eine-unmoralische-frage-ld.1921387
I will use google translator to translate the most important parts.

Mineral Resources Worth a Mid-Trillion Dollar Value
The conservative think tank American Action Forum (AAF) approached the potential price tag for Greenland using various methods. The experts calculated and estimated the value of the island's mineral resources, arriving at a figure of $4.4 trillion. Rare earth elements, at $1.5 trillion, and crude oil, at $1.4 trillion, represented the largest single items. These were followed, at a considerable distance, by the transition metal hafnium and natural gas.

Excluding crude oil and natural gas, which cannot be extracted in Greenland under current legislation, the value drops to $2.7 trillion. Furthermore, considering only the known mineral resources whose extraction is economically viable, the value falls to $186 billion. Extraction is often impossible or prohibitively expensive due to the geology, the lack of road, rail, and electricity infrastructure, and the limited labor supply. Currently, there are only a handful of active mines. Mining plays a negligible economic role.

Another approach by the AAF is based on a previous purchase offer of $100 million. This offer was made by US President Harry Truman in 1946, after World War II, for the purchase of Greenland. Adjusted for inflation, the price at that time would be equivalent to $1.6 billion today. However, if one were to take the $100 million as a percentage of the US GDP at that time and factor in economic growth since then, the AAF estimates a current value of $12.9 billion.

Further calculations are based on past land purchases by the US. For example, the United States acquired the Virgin Islands at the beginning of the 20th century, as well as Louisiana, Florida, Alaska, and Gadsden (now located in the southern part of the states of Arizona and New Mexico) in the 19th century.In these cases, one can also extrapolate the purchase prices at the time to their current values, or one can look at what percentage of the purchase price at that time was a relative of the US GDP and then extrapolate those values to today's levels. According to the AAF, this method yields purchase prices ranging from $12 billion (in the case of the Virgin Islands) to $890 billion (in the case of Louisiana).

A fourth model is based on a comparison with Iceland, which also has an interesting geostrategic location. The value of all private and commercial real estate there is estimated at $131 billion, which translates to $1.3 billion per square kilometer. Extrapolating this figure to the area of Greenland yields a value of $2.8 trillion. However, this calculation does not take into account that Greenland, due to its ice sheet, is significantly more difficult to settle than the much less icy Iceland.
The calculations show that there are several ways to approach the price tag for Greenland. Approaches based primarily on fundamental data focus on tangible assets, such as raw materials and real estate, or the country's economic output, which is heavily dependent on fishing.Intangible assets, such as the strategic importance of controlling shipping lanes or defending against enemies, are much more difficult to quantify. This is why such valuations are currently lacking.To create more clarity, the US would have to put forward a concrete offer beyond academic estimates. Ideally, there would then be a counter-offer, for example from China, Russia, or the EU. But that is unlikely to happen.

Personal opinion which is worth nothing because it is my gut feeling. I think the citizens of Greenland would be pretty stupid to exchange access to public health care for like 100.000 Euros per capita. Maybe only the ones who are able to vote. This would be a horrible trade. Maybe you could bribe me with 500.000 Euros.

I am too uncertain to give a price in order to buy it. If I were Denmark I would not sell in most cases.
 
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DarkRange55

DarkRange55

🎂
Oct 15, 2023
2,362
They should make the same deal as the red man Ingins and sell it for fire-water 🍻 🏹 🪶 😉 😉




If it was not obvious enough that was clearly satire. And for any of the PC liberals that are claiming to be offended, I lived on the Blackfeet (Nation) Indian Reservation for a year.


 
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Dejected 55

Dejected 55

Visionary
May 7, 2025
2,613
I don't know. I mean, there's a scenario where we could go to the country and to Denmark and make an offer, and if they were willing to sell there could be negotiations and whatnot... but they don't seem at all interested so it feels like that's where all the conversation should have stopped long ago.

We are beyond the point now of using increasing strongarm tactics so that even if they did sell now it wouldn't be because they really wanted to make the deal.

As for what is "worth" it... those mineral rights may very well be valuable... but the American people won't benefit from that... neither will the people of Greenland. Only the US corporations who get the rights to harvest those minerals will benefit... and we know full well the profits from that will stay at the top of those corporations.
 
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Forever Sleep

Earned it we have...
May 4, 2022
14,537
Seeing as Trump seems to be confused on the two- everyone's seen that speech where he keeps refering to Greenland as Iceland- right?



maybe he's hoping for a 'Buy one, get one free deal'!

Seriously though... It just seems insane and deeply offensive to me to think you can propose to just buy land from under people's feet. Change their sovereignty against their majority will. And, I'm saying that as a Brit. The days of The British Empire and stunts like that ought to be behind us. We really shouldn't be trying to play the 'Risk' board game in reality!

Your examples of calculating its value were interesting though OP. Did they include inflation do you suppose? Oil, gas and mineral reserves will presumably increase in value over the years.

Plus, just because current legislation prevents their extraction, I dread to think what might happen if someone like Trump takes charge. It's obvious he doesn't give a shit about the environment. In a flash, I imagine they would bring in new legislation to plunder everything they could.

The whole thing is so insane too. I kind of doubt it will happen anyway but, it's even more crazy to think that Trump would presumably be paying Denmark for Greenland. Not that it is a slave country but, it's like paying a person to own another person.
 
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Dejected 55

Dejected 55

Visionary
May 7, 2025
2,613
about 3.50
It was about that time, I realized...

sitepandawhalecom GIF
 
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DarkRange55

DarkRange55

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Oct 15, 2023
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DarkRange55

DarkRange55

🎂
Oct 15, 2023
2,362

China's expanding role in Greenland's mining sector had raised alarms in DC. Russia has been rearming its northern coast, building new airstrips and other infrastructure and deploying nuclear powered ice breakers to dominate arctic shipping lanes. Trying to prevent adversarial influence in the western hemisphere.

The goal may not actually be ownership but rather access and influence.
US presidents like Truman have made the same offer twice before. The media frenzy has forced NATO to take the arctic seriously.

The arctic powers are going to be diverting resources to the arctic circle, but for now I don't really see any open conflicts happening. Everyone has very well agreed and defined borders. There is some disagreement with how much neutral territory is being claimed, but no one is overstepping and claiming seas that are already claimed by someone else.
Between the US and Russia for example, there is an extremely hard line at the Bering Strait that both sides fully respect. Russia isn't going to do any oil drilling, etc, on the US's side of that line, and the US has no plans to do anything on Russia's side. The greater international community might be in disagreement that either of them should have rights to the arctic waters north of their shores, but the arctic players themselves are respecting their neighbor's already established borders. In a way, it mirrors (and imo may continue to mirror) what has transpired in Antarctica minus the formal treaty. A formal treaty could come later. Export is a main driver for the Chinese economy. And an arctic connection to the Atlantic would be a boost for their exports. The naval route from Rotterdam to Shanghai can be reduced by 30%. A new port on the Russian east coast connected with the North Sea Route would give north China a competitive advantage. So instead of friction I can foresee a situation where Russia and China cooperate on an arctic Route.
Some minor conflicts, but not big compared to ROW.



The "North West Territories" in remote Canada is where many of the U.S. ballistic monitoring stations are. Most ICBM trajectories go over the arctic because that is the shortest path between east and west.

Mediterranean countries will always use Suez. Northern route is significant for northern and west European countries. Maybe even significant for east coast of Canada and north east of USA.

But new shipping routes, particularly from the factories of Eastern China to Rotterdam via the Russian Arctic. This is called the Northern Sea Route (NSR). Russia already has a huge head start on not only infrastructure like ports and lighthouses, but most importantly heavy icebreakers (which will still be needed even in warmer climates) IIRC they have 13 nuclear powered heavy icebreakers and many smaller boats, the USA currently has 2 but ordered more. Canada and the US also get a new route in the fabled North West Passage, but this route has little infrastructure and again no icebreakers. Russian military advantages in the Arctic also enhance shipping capabilities by providing Search and Rescue and up to date navigational aides.

New resources available include fish moving north as waters warm, new oil and gas, new mineral deposits on land and off-shore, more arable land, tourism, human capital, ect. As Russia is the largest Arctic power by land and water mass, they will gain the most. Look for the Chinese to over fish new Arctic waters. The Arctic is already important in terms of missle defence b/t USA and Russia, and it will become more so. The US will put more and advanced radar and anti-missle tech. in Alaska, Northern Canada, Greenland, and possible Iceland. The Canadian Navy is in no way prepared to defend its massive Arctic coast and the US is not just busy with its warm weather Naval Forces elsewhere although there will still be a build up in the Arctic. I have actually heard and read Russians and Russian officials encouraging climate change because of the immense gains they have to make. It would be antagonistic, especially to too-hot countries.



IMG 5810
 
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