How far ahead in technology is the US military/government?

[DarkRange55]

I've worked and also done research for the government. One of my mentors owned the company that sold supercomputers to the CIA in the 1970's and 80's. His dad was a four star air force general. Another friend, the government payed for her PhD in mechanical engineering since she agreed to design missile systems and stuff for them.

I've always heard rumors that the Army is maybe 5-10-15 years ahead of the general public's technology whereas the deeper black elements of the DoD/DARPA/intelligence community is perhaps 20-50 or even 100 years ahead in classified technology. Someone gave the example of fiber optics being around since the 1940's.

My thoughts:
The government probably isn't that far ahead in most things, but it will be a few decades ahead in weaponry, code breaking, surveillance technology, and possibly in flight capabilities. (The precursors of fiber optics were used in the 1800s…)

They are ahead, but there is a long distance between discovery, experimentation and availability of new technology.

The idea of aerospace companies potentially as holders of basic scientific knowledge not shared with the academic world? There certainly is materials science/knowledge which involves topological physics. But fundamental physics, as opposed to condensed matter, is it possible?
I am highly skeptical that aerospace companies have fundamental physics knowledge not shared with the academic world.
For practical applications, the story is very different!
The boundary between these is things like high-temperature cuprate superconductors, which IBM had for a short while (probably while filing patents) before releasing it to the academic world.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuprate_superconductor

The US does have an incredible structure for avoiding the freedom of information act. Where we have private companies that are entrusted with secrets that you can't hold in government. So in the same way that a rich person sets up an irrevocable trust doesn't have any assets - the person doesn't have the assets, a container has the assets. And somebody is control of the container directing it to make loans which are taxed under different structures (and limited liability) so the person is living an incredibly lavish lifestyle with no assets. Has the government figured out the FOIA issue - "what information, we don't have any information?"

All laws are made for a reason, dig back and inevitability there is a motivating reason for the law or tax, Always follow the money and you will find the real reason for it, and it works both ways; FOIA is an example of a good law... and all the efforts that have gone into circumventing it are started by someone who did not want to comply. Who was it, follow the money behind it.

All black projects are funded beyond the "experimental" budget items, by including funds in other projects, so these projects provide "shelter" from direct oversite funding. They really did not pay $400 for a hammer.


I always found the time traveler technology conspiracy entertaining haha

Please leave your thoughts below!

 

[Dr Iron Arc]

They'd better be pretty advanced with all the money that's been spent on it. Surely none of it has gone to waste?

 

[DarkRange55]

They'd better be pretty advanced with all the money that's been spent on it. Surely none of it has gone to waste?

Haha of course we could have a whole discussion about the military-industrial (media/pharmaceutical/ect.) complex.

Projects like F-35 could actually be an intelligence community money laundering scheme for slush funds because it hasn't gone anywhere for being such an enormous money pit.
Or it could be a hybrid (being delayed so they can put money in continuously was siphoning most of it off for other uses, but still progressing to an eventual conclusion). Or it could be just colossal boondoggle kept alive to keep jobs alive in various key congressional districts.

Trillions of dollars have been spent building up this military infrastructure with good reason because it supports your free trade. Its the thing that allows free and fair trade for our country at least. We would not be the power as rich as we are now if it were not for that military might.

The government is known for waste. And also for black budgets.
The National Defense budget function in the federal budget includes a sub-account called 052 for classified budgeting for specific national security activities.
The "052 account" within the U.S. national defense budget refers to classified activities associated with national defense. This account falls under the broader National Defense budget function, which is numerically designated as function 050.

Emergency management is just government corruption. You put out fires or you make new fires to put them out. I remember one time, this exercises for biological attacks on San Diego by Hegarty and the US Government. They're getting payed millions of dollars for this and it's the most low-energy shit.

Say nurses make $35 an hour on average and during Covid maybe $40-$45 max. (Just to illustrate a point!) This one nurse that was working for a prison doing covid tests was contracted through Hegarty disasters management consulting. She was making $55 an hour. She was a Percocet addicted dwarf and the prison wanted to blacklist her (forgot the official name) so she couldn't work in any prison again. And her company said, no, you can NOT fire her because we can not replace her right now. Some of these bullshit titles like "emergency nurse" in the disaster management business literally equate to a 10 grand pay raise.

I've certainly seen corruption, cowboys, slush funds, ect. in the revolving door that is government and defense industry. I've also got some family and friends in the industry.

Revolving door (politics) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Military–industrial complex - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

I will say for stocks: defense industry is frequently inversely correlated with the overall market which might make it a good diversifier. I don't know about valuations, but had previously invested in NOC and LMT. They have the most advanced tech. I sold it a while back and got a nice return.

 

[lacrimosa]

20 years.

I have nothing to back this up but if they have the top research scientists and researchers at their beck and call, then why not?

For example, there's nothing holding them back right now from accessing unrestricted versions of advanced AI models. And they're most likely too dangerous for the general public, and... they also have to stay ahead of other countries that are considered threats. So, they would make sure they're ahead of the curve, otherwise they risk a mass-scale attack.

I know this isn't really fleshed out and it is a rudimentary explanation. But, I think it boils the answer down to its essence.

Another good question to keep you up at night. What do you think of China's advanced technology? They have near complete control of their citizens and are just as powerful as the USA considering their military might and strength. And, if they ever team up with Russia and share technologies (if they haven't already), then the USA most likely will have a problem to contain the situation.

As far as spending is concerned...

"The annual analysis by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), which estimates the full range of military spending by country beyond official figures, puts China's military spending at $292 billion in 2022, compared to U.S. spending of $877 billion in the same year." - https://home.watson.brown.edu/

But.. China most likely has a larger black book spending budget that we are not privy to.

 

[DarkRange55]

They'd better be pretty advanced with all the money that's been spent on it. Surely none of it has gone to waste?

"I remember one time, this exercises for biological attacks on San Diego by Hegarty and the US Government."
Another time I actually got a picture with a one star English general who was overseeing the whole thing as part an officer exchange program.

 

[Dr Iron Arc]

"I remember one time, this exercises for biological attacks on San Diego by Hegarty and the US Government."
Another time I actually got a picture with a one star English general who was overseeing the whole thing as part an officer exchange program.

Biological attacks on San Diego? As a resident Californian I am outraged! It should have been San Francisco or Los Angeles.

 

[DarkRange55]

Biological attacks on San Diego? As a resident Californian I am outraged! It should have been San Francisco or Los Angeles.

Hahaha it was just a training exercise. Dudes in CBRN suites and stuff

CBRN defense - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[DarkRange55]

20 years.

I have nothing to back this up but if they have the top research scientists and researchers at their beck and call, then why not?

For example, there's nothing holding them back right now from accessing unrestricted versions of advanced AI models. And they're most likely too dangerous for the general public, and... they also have to stay ahead of other countries that are considered threats. So, they would make sure they're ahead of the curve, otherwise they risk a mass-scale attack.

I know this isn't really fleshed out and it is a rudimentary explanation. But, I think it boils the answer down to its essence.

Another good question to keep you up at night. What do you think of China's advanced technology? They have near complete control of their citizens and are just as powerful as the USA considering their military might and strength. And, if they ever team up with Russia and share technologies (if they haven't already), then the USA most likely will have a problem to contain the situation.

As far as spending is concerned...

"The annual analysis by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), which estimates the full range of military spending by country beyond official figures, puts China's military spending at $292 billion in 2022, compared to U.S. spending of $877 billion in the same year." - https://home.watson.brown.edu/

But.. China most likely has a larger black book spending budget that we are not privy to.

When will China surpass the USA in its power?

Many people are concerned about a potential war of the NATO against Russia though I think many military experts in the US would like to focus on China instead. Russia can compete in Nuclear strikes but in all other fields the US is superior. I am very conflicted on US foreign policy. (I am...

sanctioned-suicide.net

My comment is at the bottom. I'm very drowsy I probably missed some stuff but its a start…

 

[lacrimosa]

When will China surpass the USA in its power?

Many people are concerned about a potential war of the NATO against Russia though I think many military experts in the US would like to focus on China instead. Russia can compete in Nuclear strikes but in all other fields the US is superior. I am very conflicted on US foreign policy. (I am...

sanctioned-suicide.net

My comment is at the bottom. I'm very drowsy I probably missed some stuff but its a start…

Damn, that is a well-informed post. Thanks for that! I admittedly didn't read it all, but will check it out tomorrow!

 

[sugarb]

I've worked and also done research for the government. One of my mentors owned the company that sold supercomputers to the CIA in the 1970's and 80's. His dad was a four star air force general. Another friend, the government payed for her PhD in mechanical engineering since she agreed to design missile systems and stuff for them.

I've always heard rumors that the Army is maybe 5-10-15 years ahead of the general public's technology whereas the deeper black elements of the DoD/DARPA/intelligence community is perhaps 20-50 or even 100 years ahead in classified technology. Someone gave the example of fiber optics being around since the 1940's.

My thoughts:
The government probably isn't that far ahead in most things, but it will be a few decades ahead in weaponry, code breaking, surveillance technology, and possibly in flight capabilities. (The precursors of fiber optics were used in the 1800s…)

They are ahead, but there is a long distance between discovery, experimentation and availability of new technology.

The idea of aerospace companies potentially as holders of basic scientific knowledge not shared with the academic world? There certainly is materials science/knowledge which involves topological physics. But fundamental physics, as opposed to condensed matter, is it possible?
I am highly skeptical that aerospace companies have fundamental physics knowledge not shared with the academic world.
For practical applications, the story is very different!
The boundary between these is things like high-temperature cuprate superconductors, which IBM had for a short while (probably while filing patents) before releasing it to the academic world.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cuprate_superconductor

The US does have an incredible structure for avoiding the freedom of information act. Where we have private companies that are entrusted with secrets that you can't hold in government. So in the same way that a rich person sets up an irrevocable trust doesn't have any assets - the person doesn't have the assets, a container has the assets. And somebody is control of the container directing it to make loans which are taxed under different structures (and limited liability) so the person is living an incredibly lavish lifestyle with no assets. Has the government figured out the FOIA issue - "what information, we don't have any information?"

All laws are made for a reason, dig back and inevitability there is a motivating reason for the law or tax, Always follow the money and you will find the real reason for it, and it works both ways; FOIA is an example of a good law... and all the efforts that have gone into circumventing it are started by someone who did not want to comply. Who was it, follow the money behind it.

All black projects are funded beyond the "experimental" budget items, by including funds in other projects, so these projects provide "shelter" from direct oversite funding. They really did not pay $400 for a hammer.


I always found the time traveler technology conspiracy entertaining haha

Please leave your thoughts below!

Well, my thought is that if we look at the past 100 years, in basically every single decade the military/government:

1. does some kind of crazy experimentation
2. commits horrific acts, either overseas or in experiments
3. develops highly advanced technology and then allows the public access to some of it after a while

And they always deny that they're doing that. lol

"Atomic bomb? Nono we're not developing that haha. ICBM? No we would never."
"No for real guys we stopped doing war crimes in the 50's with No Gun Ri!"
"No for real guys we stopped in the 60's with My Lai!"
"No for real guys we stopped in the 00's with Abu Ghraib! Really!
"No for real we aren't running any covert operations overseas or doing anything unethical or developing insane technology in secret right now, the past was different!"
"I swear the silly DARPA dog robots we're funneling billions into are the only crazy robotics research we're funding, promise guys"
"The stuff we show you is ALL THERE IS FOR REAL"

…so my assumption is that they're doing some serious crazy shit right now and we may find out the extent of it in 5-25 years. I assume VR control of robots is a thing they're researching. Advanced drones, probably. it's hard to say

 

[Agon321]

I have no idea.

I'm not a big fan of conspiracy theories, so I don't think that countries hide space technology from the public.
I think that countries (especially the US) simply plan their technologies for decades in advance.

The biggest problem with any technology is scaling.
Creating technology in a laboratory is one thing.
Using this technology on a larger scale, and in a relatively cheap way, is another thing.
I think that's what scientists are mainly working on.

We all often hear about a new "breakthrough" technology, only to never hear about it again.

They'd better be pretty advanced with all the money that's been spent on it. Surely none of it has gone to waste?

What do you choose?
Better healthcare or a new aircraft carrier?
I choose the aircraft carrier.
Aircraft carriers are cool.

 

[DarkRange55]

I have no idea.

I'm not a big fan of conspiracy theories, so I don't think that countries hide space technology from the public.
I think that countries (especially the US) simply plan their technologies for decades in advance.

The biggest problem with any technology is scaling.
Creating technology in a laboratory is one thing.
Using this technology on a larger scale, and in a relatively cheap way, is another thing.
I think that's what scientists are mainly working on.

We all often hear about a new "breakthrough" technology, only to never hear about it again.


What do you choose?
Better healthcare or a new aircraft carrier?
I choose the aircraft carrier.
Aircraft carriers are cool.

Agreed, except that "any" is an overstatement.
>> The biggest problem with many technologies is scaling.

>> I think that's what scientists are mainly working on.
And especially engineers.

 

[Ironborn]

Maybe the United States
Looks in tea sipping disgust at the SA80

 

[DarkRange55]

Maybe the United States
Looks in tea sipping disgust at the SA80

Well, my thought is that if we look at the past 100 years, in basically every single decade the military/government:

1. does some kind of crazy experimentation
2. commits horrific acts, either overseas or in experiments
3. develops highly advanced technology and then allows the public access to some of it after a while

And they always deny that they're doing that. lol

"Atomic bomb? Nono we're not developing that haha. ICBM? No we would never."
"No for real guys we stopped doing war crimes in the 50's with No Gun Ri!"
"No for real guys we stopped in the 60's with My Lai!"
"No for real guys we stopped in the 00's with Abu Ghraib! Really!
"No for real we aren't running any covert operations overseas or doing anything unethical or developing insane technology in secret right now, the past was different!"
"I swear the silly DARPA dog robots we're funneling billions into are the only crazy robotics research we're funding, promise guys"
"The stuff we show you is ALL THERE IS FOR REAL"

…so my assumption is that they're doing some serious crazy shit right now and we may find out the extent of it in 5-25 years. I assume VR control of robots is a thing they're researching. Advanced drones, probably. it's hard to say

Manhattan Project. The US probably has some crazy f***ing weapons.

The NSA for example was secret for a long time and now we all know it exists. These people are mathematicians that deal with numbers. So you would see a whole generation of students in the US that got their PhD's for this. You would check the graduation year and see a lot of students are missing. If you looked at their addresses, you would find they are all working in the same city. Then you would know there is an operation going on, that they are looking into something.

Let's say this was Manhattan Project level in terms of scale. The idea is, nobody is missing so there is no big project going on . You would be surprised with how open and not secretive the American academia really is. And also Chinese academia in some regards. I think China passed a period of time where in the 1960's they needed to lockout 5,000 physicists. College and high school students because they needed a nuclear bomb. A generation of physics major college students disappeared and were shipped into Gansu province. And next thing you know they had a big mushroom cloud and everyone figured out thats where they went. But they've passed that period. I basically know some people that work in some very sensitive industries and they can say talk about and say yeah, we're making something that's technically not internationally legal. And in the US they're saying I'm working with the cold fusion project here or I'm working with NASA or something. They are open, there's not that much that is secret attached to them.

The government still owns and manages some manufacturing facilities.

This one for example is government, Lockheed (Skunks Works) is known to operate out of here:

United States Air Force Plant 42 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

This one is government owned, contractor operated:

United States Air Force Plant 4 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

If I remember, the nuclear weapons manufacturinginfrastructure is owned by the government. Some of it is run by corporations, some by universities, and some by the government itself.

Some stuff comes private inventors (I know a couple), some comes out universities whether its a project, lab or startup company (been involved in one), most is contracted to big defense industries (again, been there), some government scientists (yo)

 

[3/4Dead]

sorry i don't have much to contribute but heres a family guy joke about exactly this

 

[DarkRange55]

The military has a company design a prototype for them and then they have exclusive manufacture agreements or they acquire the patents and have another company build them.

 

[Hvergelmir]

I don't think they're ahead, in a general sense.

Especially the military have a big interest in areas irrelevant to other sectors; such as nuclear devices, camouflage, fighter jets, submarines and long range lasers. They might very well be 100 years ahead; ahead until someone gets the incentive to catch up.
NASA was a hundred years ahead in space exploration, but that is very quickly changing as private actors are getting a serious interest in the matter.

Your example with fiber optics is also a good one. The underlying principle was public knowledge since the 1840s.
Old school copper cables were already enabling communication at >80% of the speed of light, though! For normal people of the 1800s that's instantaneous. Cross continental, low power, low latency, high bandwidth communication is a very recent need for the general public. Copper cables did a fully adequate job, for a long time.

 

[DarkRange55]

I don't think they're ahead, in a general sense.

Especially the military have a big interest in areas irrelevant to other sectors; such as nuclear devices, camouflage, fighter jets, submarines and long range lasers. They might very well be 100 years ahead; ahead until someone gets the incentive to catch up.
NASA was a hundred years ahead in space exploration, but that is very quickly changing as private actors are getting a serious interest in the matter.

Your example with fiber optics is also a good one. The underlying principle was public knowledge since the 1840s.
Old school copper cables were already enabling communication at >80% of the speed of light, though! For normal people of the 1800s that's instantaneous. Cross continental, low power, low latency, high bandwidth communication is a very recent need for the general public. Copper cables did a fully adequate job, for a long time.

NASA is not 100 years ahead. Look at one of my previous employers, the NRO: "In the 1980s, the NRO had satellites and software that were capable of determining the exact dimensions of a tank gun.[25]In 2012 the agency donated two space telescopesto NASA. Despite being stored unused, the instruments are superior to the Hubble Space Telescope. One journalist observed, "If telescopes of this caliber are languishing on shelves, imagine what they're actually using."[66]"

The Chinese material scientists still can't figure out how the US engineering some of the alloys for the turbine jet engines.

 

[Darkover]

i think the military just use what ever is the most advance technology on the market at the time
maybe they have some advancements ahead of the market by about 5 years like faster central processing unit in a lab somewhere
but there really are limited in what they can achieve anyway, the laws of physics suck! Our brains are limited. Everything is finite and limited! Information density is limited, energy density is limited, computing power is limited. And the limits are insurmountable! They exist because of the fundamental laws of physics, like the speed of light/causality being the limit for speed. Back to computing limits: For example, physics is limited in what it can simulate, because of this you can't simulate any complex system in this Universe. The maximum they can simulate is a few thousand atoms at most. And that's only in little detail and with simple interactions. And since computing power is already reaching its limits we will never be able to compute really useful things. everything is finite and limited the speed of causality(c) is so low 300,000,000,000,000,000 nanometers is the maximum speed which anything can compute in the universe the speed of light

 

[DarkRange55]

I have no idea.

I'm not a big fan of conspiracy theories, so I don't think that countries hide space technology from the public.
I think that countries (especially the US) simply plan their technologies for decades in advance.

The biggest problem with any technology is scaling.
Creating technology in a laboratory is one thing.
Using this technology on a larger scale, and in a relatively cheap way, is another thing.
I think that's what scientists are mainly working on.

We all often hear about a new "breakthrough" technology, only to never hear about it again.


What do you choose?
Better healthcare or a new aircraft carrier?
I choose the aircraft carrier.
Aircraft carriers are cool.

Trillions of dollars have been spent building up this military infrastructure with good reason because it supports your free trade. Its the thing that allows free and fair trade for our country at least. We would not be the power as rich as we are now if it were not for that military might.

I don't think they're ahead, in a general sense.

Especially the military have a big interest in areas irrelevant to other sectors; such as nuclear devices, camouflage, fighter jets, submarines and long range lasers. They might very well be 100 years ahead; ahead until someone gets the incentive to catch up.
NASA was a hundred years ahead in space exploration, but that is very quickly changing as private actors are getting a serious interest in the matter.

Your example with fiber optics is also a good one. The underlying principle was public knowledge since the 1840s.
Old school copper cables were already enabling communication at >80% of the speed of light, though! For normal people of the 1800s that's instantaneous. Cross continental, low power, low latency, high bandwidth communication is a very recent need for the general public. Copper cables did a fully adequate job, for a long time.

I would also add -

I am highly skeptical that aerospace companies have fundamental physics knowledge not shared with the academic world.

For practical applications, the story is very different!

The boundary between these is things like high-temperature cuprate superconductors, which IBM had for a short while (probably while filing patents) before releasing it to the academic world.

Look up IntelQ, the CIA has a venture capital fund that invests in startups that might be useful to them (including Facebook)