Do you think the betting market gives better predictions than usual surveys?

[noname223]

In the US Polymarket and Kalshi are pretty popular. Both are illegal in Germany. Even though, I just read Polymarket wants people in Germany to bet on their platform. Which is stupid Germans make themselves culpable if they do that. In Germany it is only allowed to bet on sport events to prevent insider bets.

Some say the betting market is better for predictions because money is at stake. And in surveys there is nothing at stake. I think bets attract a certain kind of people. Maybe people who have more money and more libertarian views on the economy. And I am also not sure what is more important. The more money is involved, the more likelier it is the event will occur. Or whether more people have to bet on, to increase the likelihood of the event. In some ways it could also be a self-fulfiling prophecy if rich people have a higher significance in making predictions.

What do you think?

 

[Dejected 55]

I don't understand the question.

People do famously lie on surveys. Even if they are told they will be anonymous, people tend to not believe it, and even so still don't want to admit their true leanings. People lie about who they will vote for or whom they've already voted for... people lie about preferences (sexual and otherwise) and people lie about things they really have no reason to lie about. Some people also like to cause chaos and will intentionally lie just to fuck up the survey. I don't know how anyone can extrapolate anything really reliable from any survey.

But what does betting have to do with anything?

Betting doesn't affect outcome or indicate preference. You wouldn't bet on something you really like when you know it isn't going to happen. People attempt to bet on what they think will happen... but the bet has no effect on whether it happens or not. That's not how betting works.

So I don't think I understand the question.

 

[Hvergelmir]

So I don't think I understand the question.

The question was specifically about predictions.

Examples from Polymarket:
"Super Bowl Champion 2026?"
"Elon Musk # tweets January 2 - January 9, 2025?"
"Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?"

Will peoples predictions be more accurate if there are money on the line?

What do you think?

I don't think so. I do think that the some noise (people intentionally giving nonsense answers) will disappear, but I don't think it'll affect the overall result.
I'd be very curious to see a historical comparison, though!

 

[Dejected 55]

The question was specifically about predictions.

Examples from Polymarket:
"Super Bowl Champion 2026?"
"Elon Musk # tweets January 2 - January 9, 2025?"
"Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?"

Will peoples predictions be more accurate if there are money on the line?


I don't think so. I do think that the some noise (people intentionally giving nonsense answers) will disappear, but I don't think it'll affect the overall result.
I'd be very curious to see a historical comparison, though!

The question in the title of the thread is "do you think the betting market gives better predictions than usual surveys?"

People might be more apt to put money on something than give that same answer in a survey... but neither has any effect on reality. That's why I don't understand the question.

I might root for my favorite team to win the SuperBowl... I might pick a team because I'd slightly like then to win more than someone else... but I might bet money based on which team I objectively think has the best chance to win. But none of those have any effect on who actually wins that game. Whomever wins wins regardless of my survey response or betting. The outcome doesn't make me suddenly a good predictor of things.

That's where I'm getting lost in this topic.

 

[noname223]

The question in the title of the thread is "do you think the betting market gives better predictions than usual surveys?"

People might be more apt to put money on something than give that same answer in a survey... but neither has any effect on reality. That's why I don't understand the question.

I might root for my favorite team to win the SuperBowl... I might pick a team because I'd slightly like then to win more than someone else... but I might bet money based on which team I objectively think has the best chance to win. But none of those have any effect on who actually wins that game. Whomever wins wins regardless of my survey response or betting. The outcome doesn't make me suddenly a good predictor of things.

That's where I'm getting lost in this topic.

People use both the betting market and surveys to deduce predicitions about the future. And in some ways if voters read predictions this can influence their decisions how to vote. Some people vote strategically or like the herd.