Method Probability of Survival in a Combined Suicide Attempt with a .357 Magnum and Hanging

[L'absent]

I was doing some research and wanted to explore the issue in a more technical way, using advanced software to obtain a realistic estimate of survival probability in such a scenario. I processed the data using MATLAB, IBM SPSS, and SAS, tools commonly employed in forensic and ballistic fields to model high-lethality situations. Considering documented fatality rates for a gunshot to the palate with a .357 Magnum and the lethality of hanging after loss of consciousness, the model returned a survival probability of less than 0.005%, or about 1 in 20,000. The gunshot itself has an estimated lethality between 95% and 99.5%, with a minimal margin of survival only in cases of abnormal ballistic deviations or non-immediately fatal brain damage. If the gunshot does not result in instant death, the individual would lose consciousness, and the noose would take over, with a 99% lethality rate in the absence of voluntary reactions. Without immediate medical intervention, death is nearly certain. Ultimately, the combined use of these two methods makes survival extremely rare, practically negligible. The probability of survival is truly insignificant: one in twenty thousand.

Has anyone conducted a more in-depth analysis of this combined method or has more detailed data? If you have forensic information, more precise statistics, or have used other tools to assess the survival rate, it would be interesting to compare results. Does the figure I obtained seem realistic to you?

 

[LunarEc]

I was doing some research and wanted to explore the issue in a more technical way, using advanced software to obtain a realistic estimate of survival probability in such a scenario. I processed the data using MATLAB, IBM SPSS, and SAS, tools commonly employed in forensic and ballistic fields to model high-lethality situations. Considering documented fatality rates for a gunshot to the palate with a .357 Magnum and the lethality of hanging after loss of consciousness, the model returned a survival probability of less than 0.005%, or about 1 in 20,000. The gunshot itself has an estimated lethality between 95% and 99.5%, with a minimal margin of survival only in cases of abnormal ballistic deviations or non-immediately fatal brain damage. If the gunshot does not result in instant death, the individual would lose consciousness, and the noose would take over, with a 99% lethality rate in the absence of voluntary reactions. Without immediate medical intervention, death is nearly certain. Ultimately, the combined use of these two methods makes survival extremely rare, practically negligible. The probability of survival is truly insignificant: one in twenty thousand.

Has anyone conducted a more in-depth analysis of this combined method or has more detailed data? If you have forensic information, more precise statistics, or have used other tools to assess the survival rate, it would be interesting to compare results. Does the figure I obtained seem realistic to you?

Dude I dont think anyone goes that deep into it, a shot fired inside of your mouth 35 degrees up would 100% kill you. Needing a rope is not something necessary, I think the gun alone would suffice. The probability that you gave comes into play only if the angle and location of the bullet misses the correct place. You can look more into that, I've seen a few, I never heard of someone surviving a bullet that goes through the mouth and then into the brain.

 

[pthnrdnojvsc]

That combination method seems more reliable. On Herman then shocker website someone did do a gun and hanging method to perfection

What probability for a 300 Winchester magnum rifle shot to the head with this powerful ammunition ?

note the muzzle energy of 3478 foot pounds compared to .357 Magnum of 464 foot pounds muzzle energy. Imo the mighty 357 magnum handgun which is deadly at 99,% is but a baby gun compared to the invincible 300 Winchester Magnum rifle as the difference in muzzle energy shows ...

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Muzzle Energy	3478 Foot Pounds

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Best Use	Self Defense
Grain Weight	158 Grains
Quantity	50 Round
Muzzle Velocity	1150 Feet Per Second
Muzzle Energy	464 Foot Pounds
Bullet Style	Jacketed Hollow Point

 

[L'absent]

Dude I dont think anyone goes that deep into it, a shot fired inside of your mouth 35 degrees up would 100% kill you. Needing a rope is not something necessary, I think the gun alone would suffice. The probability that you gave comes into play only if the angle and location of the bullet misses the correct place. You can look more into that, I've seen a few, I never heard of someone surviving a bullet that goes through the mouth and then into the brain.

I understand your point of view, but there is no absolute certainty of 100%, not even in this case. A shot fired into the mouth at a 35° upward angle has an extremely high probability of being fatal, but survival, though rare, cannot be completely ruled out. It depends on the exact trajectory of the bullet, the type of ammunition, and the structures it hits. If the bullet passes through the brainstem or major arteries, death is practically instantaneous, but if it follows a trajectory that avoids these structures by even a few millimeters, the person could survive, albeit with catastrophic injuries. There have been documented cases of individuals surviving self-inflicted gunshot wounds precisely because the bullet deviated or passed only through the frontal lobe without destroying vital areas. The addition of the noose in the model serves to consider a scenario in which, if the gunshot is not immediately fatal, loss of consciousness would prevent any attempt at rescue or reaction, making death almost inevitable. This calculation excludes immediate medical intervention or the rare chance that someone happens to be nearby and can act quickly. If the gunshot alone were 100% fatal, there would be no exceptions, but we know that in forensic medicine, nothing is ever absolute. In your opinion, what factors would guarantee that it is always 100% fatal, with no possibility of survival?

 

[wiggy]

I think statistically modeling it out like that is misleading. It shouldn't just be a matter of combining the two probabilities, as the cumulative damage done by the bullet and the hanging would be greater than looking at the two events as isolated in quick succession. If anything 1 in 20 thousand seems like a massive overestimation. Like others have said, from a practical perspective the probability of surviving the gunshot to the head alone is negligible if minimal precautions are taken concerning the shot placement. As far as I'm aware the success rates for suicides by gunshot are not normalized to account for poor shot placement, and I suspect they'd be much higher if they were. That said, I wouldn't fault one for wanting an additional layer of certainty, and it's easy to conceptualize combining a gun with a lot of different things.

 

[Richard Langford]

I think you should do it just after taking SN too. You can't be too careful. Maybe you can find a way to incorporate that 9v battery idea that someone mentioned on another thread as well. You know...just in case.

 

[Ligottian]

Surely a .357 Mag fired just above the ear with contact to the skull would blow enough brains out to cause almost instant death even if it didn't hit the brain stem. And let's not forget the shock wave that would cause tissue damage to what the bullet didn't directly hit. Just don't fire from under the chin.

 

[L'absent]

That combination method seems more reliable. On Herman then shocker website someone did do a gun and hanging method to perfection

What probability for a 300 Winchester magnum rifle shot to the head with this powerful ammunition ?

note the muzzle energy of 3478 foot pounds compared to .357 Magnum of 464 foot pounds muzzle energy. Imo the mighty 357 magnum handgun which is deadly at 99,% is but a baby gun compared to the invincible 300 Winchester Magnum rifle as the difference in muzzle energy shows ...

Federal Fusion Tipped 300 Winchester Mag Ammo 180 Grain Bonded Polymer

Federal Fusion became a legend in the deer woods for a reason. Its pressure-formed lead core is molecularly bonded to a consistent copper jacket,...

www.midwayusa.com

	300 Winchester Magnum
Best Use	Hunting
Grain Weight	180 Grains
Quantity	20 Round
Muzzle Velocity	2950 Feet Per Second
Muzzle Energy	3478 Foot Pounds

Blazer Brass 357 Mag Ammo 158 Grain Jacketed Hollow Point Box of 50

This Ammunition has the same great value and exceptional performance found in Blazer Ammunition with aluminum cases, but it has a boxer-primed,...

www.midwayusa.com

Cartridge	357 Magnum
Best Use	Self Defense
Grain Weight	158 Grains
Quantity	50 Round
Muzzle Velocity	1150 Feet Per Second
Muzzle Energy	464 Foot Pounds
Bullet Style	Jacketed Hollow Point

The .300 Winchester Magnum is incredibly powerful, with muzzle energy that makes lethality almost certain if fired through the palate. The brain and brainstem would be instantly destroyed, leaving very little chance of survival. However, no matter how rare, the risk of failure always exists. A flinch before the shot, a slightly off angle, or an unusual bullet deviation could theoretically lead to momentary survival, maybe just for a few seconds, but still a variable to consider. The noose, in this case, remains an insurance policy, a backup that completely eliminates the possibility of an unforeseen outcome. Another issue is that shooting oneself in the palate with a .300 Win Mag while standing on a chair is not that simple. The rifle has significant recoil and a heavier trigger pull compared to a handgun, making it difficult to maintain perfect control without a stable support. There's a risk that the body might move involuntarily before the shot or that the weapon might not be positioned correctly, which could affect the bullet's trajectory. At that point, the noose comes into play as an absolute guarantee, eliminating any remaining chance of failure, regardless of the shot's dynamics. Even with a caliber this powerful, the combined method still makes sense to eliminate any variables completely.

I think you should do it just after taking SN too. You can't be too careful. Maybe you can find a way to incorporate that 9v battery idea that someone mentioned on another thread as well. You know...just in case.

Well, the whole point of the combined method is to eliminate any possible margin of error. Sodium nitrite wouldn't have an immediate effect, so it wouldn't serve any purpose. The 9V battery? Come on, this isn't a Wile E. Coyote cartoon.

Surely a .357 Mag fired just above the ear with contact to the skull would blow enough brains out to cause almost instant death even if it didn't hit the brain stem. And let's not forget the shock wave that would cause tissue damage to what the bullet didn't directly hit. Just don't fire from under the chin.

Yeah, a .357 Mag at contact range above the ear would almost certainly do the job. The combination of kinetic energy, cavitation, and shockwave would cause massive damage even without a direct brainstem hit. And yeah, under the chin is always a risk because of possible deflections or an exit trajectory that doesn't sever vital structures immediately.

 

[Richard Langford]

The .300 Winchester Magnum is incredibly powerful, with muzzle energy that makes lethality almost certain if fired through the palate. The brain and brainstem would be instantly destroyed, leaving very little chance of survival. However, no matter how rare, the risk of failure always exists. A flinch before the shot, a slightly off angle, or an unusual bullet deviation could theoretically lead to momentary survival, maybe just for a few seconds, but still a variable to consider. The noose, in this case, remains an insurance policy, a backup that completely eliminates the possibility of an unforeseen outcome. Another issue is that shooting oneself in the palate with a .300 Win Mag while standing on a chair is not that simple. The rifle has significant recoil and a heavier trigger pull compared to a handgun, making it difficult to maintain perfect control without a stable support. There's a risk that the body might move involuntarily before the shot or that the weapon might not be positioned correctly, which could affect the bullet's trajectory. At that point, the noose comes into play as an absolute guarantee, eliminating any remaining chance of failure, regardless of the shot's dynamics. Even with a caliber this powerful, the combined method still makes sense to eliminate any variables completely.

Well, the whole point of the combined method is to eliminate any possible margin of error. Sodium nitrite wouldn't have an immediate effect, so it wouldn't serve any purpose. The 9V battery? Come on, this isn't a Wile E. Coyote cartoon.

Yeah, a .357 Mag at contact range above the ear would almost certainly do the job. The combination of kinetic energy, cavitation, and shockwave would cause massive damage even without a direct brainstem hit. And yeah, under the chin is always a risk because of possible deflections or an exit trajectory that doesn't sever vital structures immediately.

My comment went right over your head didn't it?

 

[OnlyOutcastsMourn]

A powerful bullet to the head will transfer enough energy to do catastrophic damage to your brain, likely leading to the loss of brain function. Most people who survive self-inflicted gunshot wounds aim under the chin, aim at a very poor angle, flinch, and/or use .22 rounds. Placing a gun to the front or side of your skull will still make your brain bounce around in your skull, the gas will push through the entry wound, the bullet will rip through your brain, and shrapnel comprised of bits of skull and bullet will tear through your brain as well.

There is no such thing as a guarantee, as you are a biological machine that will cling to life if it can.

 

[SummerSolesLongLost]

Mate the gun alone is plenty, take a swig of SN before incade you are really paranoid,

 

[cme-dme]

I mean if you want to die twice go for it but usually you only need to die once to die. Seems a bit excessive to me.

 

[L'absent]

My comment went right over your head didn't it?

Fair enough, maybe I did. What exactly were you implying?

Mate the gun alone is plenty, take a swig of SN before incade you are really paranoid,

If redundancy is unnecessary, why do professional execution methods often include backup measures? Just something to think about.

A powerful bullet to the head will transfer enough energy to do catastrophic damage to your brain, likely leading to the loss of brain function. Most people who survive self-inflicted gunshot wounds aim under the chin, aim at a very poor angle, flinch, and/or use .22 rounds. Placing a gun to the front or side of your skull will still make your brain bounce around in your skull, the gas will push through the entry wound, the bullet will rip through your brain, and shrapnel comprised of bits of skull and bullet will tear through your brain as well.

There is no such thing as a guarantee, as you are a biological machine that will cling to life if it can.

Exactly, there is no absolute guarantee, which is why redundancy matters in high-certainty scenarios. Even high-caliber rounds can leave a window for survival in rare cases, depending on entry angle, bullet fragmentation, and individual physiology. That's why combined methods statistically lower the failure rate to near-zero.

 

[Richard Langford]

Fair enough, maybe I did. What exactly were you implying?

If redundancy is unnecessary, why do professional execution methods often include backup measures? Just something to think about.

Exactly, there is no absolute guarantee, which is why redundancy matters in high-certainty scenarios. Even high-caliber rounds can leave a window for survival in rare cases, depending on entry angle, bullet fragmentation, and individual physiology. That's why combined methods statistically lower the failure rate to near-zero.

That as others have said, it's unnecessarily excessive.