Here a definition:
"In chaos theory, the butterfly effect is the sensitive dependence on initial conditions in which a small change in one state of a deterministic nonlinear system can result in large differences in a later state. The term is closely associated with the work of mathematician and meteorologist Edward Norton Lorenz. He noted that the butterfly effect is derived from the metaphorical example of the details of a tornado (the exact time of formation, the exact path taken) being influenced by minor perturbations such as a distant butterfly flapping its wings several weeks earlier. Lorenz originally used a seagull causing a storm but was persuaded to make it more poetic with the use of butterfly and tornado by 1972. He discovered the effect when he observed runs of his weather model with initial condition data that were rounded in a seemingly inconsequential manner. He noted that the weather model would fail to reproduce the results of runs with the unrounded initial condition data. A very small change in initial conditions had created a significantly different outcome.
The butterfly effect concept has since been used outside the context of weather science as a broad term for any situation where a small change is supposed to be the cause of larger consequences."
The following: If I watch a soccer game and decide to go to bed earlier will this have an effect on the outcome? Probably not. Even if then the influence is probably completely arbitrarily. However I am not sure whether this also applies to going to the stadium. I mean a soccer game can be decided by small details. The change of interactions can barely be predicted. There are often young boys who throw the ball to the players when it is outside a field. I would say these young boys could have potentially a high influence on the game. Though also very arbitrarily. There are so many sensations for the players we cannot say how and which exactly will be perceived. Many things are a blackbox. For me that is another good reason to believe it is extremely difficult to predict the future. There are many unknown variables. Human tend to believe in narratives and stereotypes. There are many thinking fallacies and biases that one should try to have in mind.
I am not completely sure whether I fully believe in the butterfly effect but it is interesting for sure.
"In chaos theory, the butterfly effect is the sensitive dependence on initial conditions in which a small change in one state of a deterministic nonlinear system can result in large differences in a later state. The term is closely associated with the work of mathematician and meteorologist Edward Norton Lorenz. He noted that the butterfly effect is derived from the metaphorical example of the details of a tornado (the exact time of formation, the exact path taken) being influenced by minor perturbations such as a distant butterfly flapping its wings several weeks earlier. Lorenz originally used a seagull causing a storm but was persuaded to make it more poetic with the use of butterfly and tornado by 1972. He discovered the effect when he observed runs of his weather model with initial condition data that were rounded in a seemingly inconsequential manner. He noted that the weather model would fail to reproduce the results of runs with the unrounded initial condition data. A very small change in initial conditions had created a significantly different outcome.
The butterfly effect concept has since been used outside the context of weather science as a broad term for any situation where a small change is supposed to be the cause of larger consequences."
The following: If I watch a soccer game and decide to go to bed earlier will this have an effect on the outcome? Probably not. Even if then the influence is probably completely arbitrarily. However I am not sure whether this also applies to going to the stadium. I mean a soccer game can be decided by small details. The change of interactions can barely be predicted. There are often young boys who throw the ball to the players when it is outside a field. I would say these young boys could have potentially a high influence on the game. Though also very arbitrarily. There are so many sensations for the players we cannot say how and which exactly will be perceived. Many things are a blackbox. For me that is another good reason to believe it is extremely difficult to predict the future. There are many unknown variables. Human tend to believe in narratives and stereotypes. There are many thinking fallacies and biases that one should try to have in mind.
I am not completely sure whether I fully believe in the butterfly effect but it is interesting for sure.
