C*r*n* question.... (sorry, wanted to understand this aspect better)

[jgm63]

Apologies for a c*r*n* thread, but there's something I was wondering (others may also be wondering perhaps)

My question is :
Does the number of potential lives saved, etc, justify the extent of the disruption caused by the preventative measures taken ?

e.g. how does the economic damage that will occur compare with the potential loss of lives if the measures weren't taken, etc....

I'm interested to get insights that are as factual as possible, rather than just believing the "official narrative".
Alternatively, just make stuff up as usual, LOL.

 

[Jean4]

I find this question interesting. My normal is being a shut-in. It is no big deal for me that we just went on lock-down and everything is 100 percent closed. I actually like it. People can't nag me now to go outside.

I really don't know how to answer this, as we really don't know much about this virus as it is new. Think of how things were at the beginning of the AIDS crisis. We knew nothing about transmission or how it hits.

Same here. We don't know enough about it. We thought that only the elderly got it. Wrong. We now see children getting it. There are two dogs in China who tested positive and one died.

It may be overdramatic, but we may wipe out half the planet with this virus as we don't know about it. Is it worth shutting down? I personally don't care if the entire planet goes extinct. However, my beliefs of the innocent should not be harmed kicks in. I don't want to be a carrier, be asymptomatic and pass it to the elderly woman who lives across the hall, and I kill her.

It's all how you think. I wouldn't CTB by train for that very reason. I wouldn't want to harm the passengers. Some people don't care.

I am assuming (and could be wrong) the same people who would think of jumping in front of the train and find it acceptable would be upset about the disruption in their lives. If I went out, I would be annoyed, but realize this is the only way to contain this thing.... and I don't want to be responsible for possibly killing somebody.

 

[Quarky00]

Alternatively, just make stuff up as usual, LOL.

If we assume no measures taken (such as quarantine and closure of businesses) then the number of sick people and hospital staff needed would bring down the economy to its knees.

The patterns of SARS-CoV-2 are unlike SARS, it's basically flu -- only highly infectious (much more) and slightly more severe (not much more). With SARS-1 it was quite the opposite: infectious similar to regular flu (perhaps even less so) and much deadlier.

We have the SARS-2 patterns and behaviour. We know how it acts. We know its incubation period and infection rates and fatality rate and how it progresses etc.

I think fatality rates are not that alarming. The problem is that everyone gets the virus. It's very infectious, not that deadly.

Basically you would have 100% infection while 20% need treatment or sick leave. Most are old. But safe to assume 10% of workforce will be sick and healthcare system will have to work at 200% (community GPs and hospitals). Without containment this will last for months (years).

Another aspect is the severity. Some of these sick people will require longer more intensive treatment than the regular flu. Routine procedures will be delayed and other sick people won't get better. It won't have a domino effect but a very slow ongoing gradual economic crisis.

TL;DR: Not deadly , but all over the place (big time).

 

[Epsilon0]

From what I gather from watching the news and reading the newspapers, epidemiologists and experts on health issues say isolation is the best way to fight this.

I am not one to see conspiracies everywhere, so I willingly follow the government's guidelines and the Health Department officials' advice.

You ask a valid question, and I assume you are not the only one who thought to weigh the loss of life against the economical debacle we are seeing unfold.

The consensus seems to be that the global economy is being plunged into a deep crisis.

Since you mention the cost of human lives, I would only like to point out that unemployment can lead to depression, anxiety and a host of other psychological problems which have a profound negative impact of life quality.

 

[Jean4]

From what I gather from watching the news and reading the newspapers, epidemiologists and experts on health issues say isolation is the best way to fight this.

I am not one to see conspiracies everywhere, so I willingly follow the government's guidelines and the Health Department officials' advice.

You ask a valid question, and I assume you are not the only one who thought to weigh the loss of life against the economical debacle we are seeing unfold.

The consensus seems to be that the global economy is being plunged into a deep crisis.

Since you mention the cost of human lives, I would only like to point out that unemployment can lead to depression, anxiety and a host of other psychological problems which have a profound negative impact of life quality.

Which is why (I am on the Emergency Response Team) I am trying to figure out Skype/Phone therapy. We are expecting an increase of suicides from shut ins and health care worker.

Funny. Putting a suicidal person in charge of keeping others from CTB lol.

 

[Epsilon0]

Which is why (I am on the Emergency Response Team) I am trying to figure out Skype/Phone therapy. We are expecting an increase of suicides from shut ins and health care worker.

Funny. Putting a suicidal person in charge of keeping others from CTB lol.

The Health Care system in my country seems to be overwhelmed. Luckily there are a few apps for meeting doctors or psychologists online, and they are subsidised by the state, so you only have to pay a symbolic sum for an appointment.

I think it will be a challenge to set up an online/phone system now when there's a race against the clock, if the structure is not already in place.

But I wish you good luck!

 

[Jean4]

The Health Care system in my country seems to be overwhelmed. Luckily there are a few apps for meeting doctors or psychologists online, and they are subsidised by the state, so you only have to pay a symbolic sum for an appointment.

I think it will be a challenge to set up an online/phone system now when there's a race against the clock, if the structure is not already in place.

But I wish you good luck!

I'm the USA. We have the Orange Orangutan, who knew about this in December and did nothing.

We are now asking people to sew masks and tv hospital shows are donating gowns and masks.

We also will tell anyone who is 80 and needs to be admitted to go home soon. We don't have beds, supplies or equipment.

 

[FohPah]

We have an immediate responsibility to avoid doing things that would directly hurt other people -- like getting them sick. A bustling economy is a luxury. We don't have an immediate responsibility to protect a luxury. If the suffering and death caused by the reduction in economic activity is greater than the suffering and death that would be caused by spreading a disease when going about our daily business... then we depend too much on the economy. In that case, we need to take a step back from all that activity and consumption, and reevaluate what's really necessary. Which is exactly what we're doing when we practice social distancing.

Really, it's something we should have done long ago for the sake of the natural environment.

 

[Epsilon0]

We have an immediate responsibility to avoid doing things that would directly hurt other people -- like getting them sick. A bustling economy is a luxury. We don't have an immediate responsibility to protect a luxury. If the suffering and death caused by the reduction in economic activity is greater than the suffering and death that would be caused by spreading a disease when going about our daily business... then we depend too much on the economy. In that case, taking a step back from all that activity to reevaluate what's really necessary is something we should have done anyway.

Really, it's something we should have done long ago for the sake of the natural environment.

Well put!

What are you thoughts on the dramatic effects of unemployment on a society as a whole, but also at the level of each individual who loses an income source and faces anxiety, shame, low self-esteem, depression etc.?

 

[Quarky00]

To add on to what I said , and like @jgm63 wanted bring facts, these 10%-20% of population that have sever flu or serious pneumonia (SARS-2) are overwhelming the system . Lombardy (Italy) is not a poor area and has resources. My estimates about 200% workload on hospital was pretty spot on:

All nonurgent hospital procedures were canceled to open and staff another 482 ICU beds (roughly 60% of the total pre-crisis capacity) in the first 18 days, according to the authors. Before the epidemic, the 74 hospitals had about 720 ICU beds (2.9% of total beds), and up to 90% of them are usually occupied in the winter.

So capacity went up 160% and still hospitals collapsed .

If by the end of the SARS-2 epidemic Italy would experience 10,000 deaths out of its 60 million people population , that's still not the "deadly epidemic" news outlets and WHO portray SARS-2 to be . In fact it's not that many people . 3,400 die in Italy from car accidents yearly . But the SARS-2 patients are severely ill over a long period of time, and their numbers are growing -- that's the problem (even though 90%-95% recover).

So even if you don't care about people's lives , it's gonna cost you more not to suspend economic activity. QED

 

[LastRide]

1918-19: Spanish influenza epidemic, estimated deaths worldwide between 50 and 100 million.
2020-?: Coronavirus epidemic, estimated deaths worldwide..????
The only thing that will be the same one hundred years later for sure: once it's over, the people who remain will just have to live with it and it will become an acceptable risk and part of our lives. Remember people still die of the flu today, in far more massive proportions than the current "trendy" virus? Funnily enough nobody cares. It's only cool if you catch the the latest fashion thing !

 

[Jean4]

We have an immediate responsibility to avoid doing things that would directly hurt other people -- like getting them sick. A bustling economy is a luxury. We don't have an immediate responsibility to protect a luxury. If the suffering and death caused by the reduction in economic activity is greater than the suffering and death that would be caused by spreading a disease when going about our daily business... then we depend too much on the economy. In that case, we need to take a step back from all that activity and consumption, and reevaluate what's really necessary. Which is exactly what we're doing when we practice social distancing.

Really, it's something we should have done long ago for the sake of the natural environment.

The best post I saw today.

 

[FohPah]

Well put!

What are you thoughts on the dramatic effects of unemployment on a society as a whole, but also at the level of each individual who loses an income source and faces anxiety, shame, low self-esteem, depression etc.?

We were born into a game of musical chairs. We are the victims of unsustainable growth.

 

[Mort]

From what I gather from watching the news and reading the newspapers, epidemiologists and experts on health issues say isolation is the best way to fight this.

I am not one to see conspiracies everywhere, so I willingly follow the government's guidelines and the Health Department officials' advice.

You ask a valid question, and I assume you are not the only one who thought to weigh the loss of life against the economical debacle we are seeing unfold.

The consensus seems to be that the global economy is being plunged into a deep crisis.

Since you mention the cost of human lives, I would only like to point out that unemployment can lead to depression, anxiety and a host of other psychological problems which have a profound negative impact of life quality.

I know about unemployment as i am one of them. This self isolating is the norm for me as i have very little money to go anywhere. As i dont drive i have to use public transport thats a bit of a no no now . So staying in doors not to bad for little old thee .

 

[Deleted member 1465]

We were born into a game of musical chairs.

Damn, but that's true. I think you just summed up evolution.

 

[BlackPoppet]

From what I gather from watching the news and reading the newspapers, epidemiologists and experts on health issues say isolation is the best way to fight this.

I am not one to see conspiracies everywhere, so I willingly follow the government's guidelines and the Health Department officials' advice.

You ask a valid question, and I assume you are not the only one who thought to weigh the loss of life against the economical debacle we are seeing unfold.

The consensus seems to be that the global economy is being plunged into a deep crisis.

Since you mention the cost of human lives, I would only like to point out that unemployment can lead to depression, anxiety and a host of other psychological problems which have a profound negative impact of life quality.

I 've heard on the grapevine that they will use Covid-19 to collapse the economy. Plunge us into turmoil, and then introduce a cashless society. Microchipping us all. We will appArently pay for everything with this chip. I've heard varying degrees of stuff about microchips, some more terrifying than others.
I'm not being chipped. Google already have a microchip in pill form. Google exec Regina Dugan went on a show to showcase this product, she tried to get the host to swallow it but he refused. Lol! Good for him.
Google also had a wearable barcode sticker that you put on the back of your hand and could read your thoughts for 24 hours. That's also In the video that Paul Joseph Watson did on the Google microchip.
Problem reaction solution.Covid-19 is the problem, people react, the government provides the solution. Along with the agenda they've had planned all along. Covid-19 to my mind didn't come from bats. In Wuhan ....a few miles away is a P4 biohazard lab! Hmmm !

 

[Deleted member 1465]

I 've heard on the grapevine that they will use Covid-19 to collapse the economy. Plunge us into turmoil, and then introduce a cashless society. Microchipping us all. We will appArently pay for everything with this chip. I've heard varying degrees of stuff about microchips, some more terrifying than others.
I'm not being chipped. Google already have a microchip in pill form. Google exec Regina Dugan went on a show to showcase this product, she tried to get the host to swallow it but he refused. Lol! Good for him.
Google also had a wearable barcode sticker that you put on the back of your hand and could read your thoughts for 24 hours. That's also In the video that Paul Joseph Watson did on the Google microchip.
Problem reaction solution.Covid-19 is the problem, people react, the government provides the solution. Along with the agenda they've had planned all along. Covid-19 to my mind didn't come from bats. In Wuhan ....a few miles away is a P4 biohazard lab! Hmmm !

There IS an alarming tendency to attempt to automate everything so there is no room for negotiation. Unfortunately, it's exactly this reliance on such automation that will count against us when trying to adapt. I'm not convinced in a conscious effort to further this cause by the virus, but I do believe the powers that be may attempt to use our current situation to impose more control in the long run. Very foolish and short sighted.

 

[BlackPoppet]

There IS an alarming tendency to attempt to automate everything so there is no room for negotiation. Unfortunately, it's exactly this reliance on such automation that will count against us when trying to adapt. I'm not convinced in a conscious effort to further this cause by the virus, but I do believe the powers that be may attempt to use our current situation to impose more control in the long run. Very foolish and short sighted.

yes I agree. But as the saying goes " why waste a good crisis"
If this virus was by design, then what naturally follows is the stuff I describe above. Have you seen the Georgia guide stones?
I mean it could have been from bats, but bats carry rabies to my knowledge. It could be a naturally occurring virus. It just seems too convenient. Event 201, agenda 21, agenda 20-30 ...So many agendas!
I really don't entirely know what it all is.
Yes you are right that they are using this virus to get more control in the long run. Whether orchestrated on purpose or naturally occurring.

 

[Deleted member 1465]

Have you seen the Georgia guide stones?

I have and the jury is out on that one. I've seen many more things too, and whilst I'm not unconvinced in the desire of the ruling class to dominate everything for their benefit, I have seen enough to realise that the structures that are used to control the population are largely incompetent and prone to failure. Such things are evident through history and prehistory. Though our societies are now more complex than ever, our innate ability to fuck things up at a high level still remains the same.

 

[BlackPoppet]

I have and the jury is out on that one. I've seen many more things too, and whilst I'm not unconvinced in the desire of the ruling class to dominate everything for their benefit, I have seen enough to realise that the structures that are used to control the population are largely incompetent and prone to failure. Such things are evident through history and prehistory. Though our societies are now more complex than ever, our innate ability to fuck things up at a high level still remains the same.

very very true. You've eased my mind a little. PM me if you ever want to discuss this kind of thing with me. In fact I would love to discuss it further. Everyone doesn't believe me ....including my family, when in the past I've warned them about things happening. So I stopped warning them. When the shi t hits the fan, they can deal with it on their own. I'm not talking to them for things they've done to me in the past.

 

[Kikoo Loool]

Apologies for a c*r*n* thread, but there's something I was wondering (others may also be wondering perhaps)

My question is :
Does the number of potential lives saved, etc, justify the extent of the disruption caused by the preventative measures taken ?

e.g. how does the economic damage that will occur compare with the potential loss of lives if the measures weren't taken, etc....

Not at all. It would have been wiser to spend a lot of money to make quickly efficient masks and hydroalcoholic soap in order to continue the economic life.

 

[calendulo]

My question is :
Does the number of potential lives saved, etc, justify the extent of the disruption caused by the preventative measures taken ?

e.g. how does the economic damage that will occur compare with the potential loss of lives if the measures weren't taken, etc....

To first question. Seems to be that Johnson and Trump it is., especially Johnson after reading Imperial College report.
To second question. It is soon yet. But it will be so close to a catastrophe.

 

[Quarky00]

To add on to what I said , and like @jgm63 wanted bring facts, these 10%-20% of population that have sever flu or serious pneumonia (SARS-2) are overwhelming the system . Lombardy (Italy) is not a poor area and has resources. My estimates about 200% workload on hospital was pretty spot on:

So capacity went up 160% and still hospitals collapsed .

If by the end of the SARS-2 epidemic Italy would experience 10,000 deaths out of its 60 million people population , that's still not the "deadly epidemic" news outlets and WHO portray SARS-2 to be . In fact it's not that many people . 3,400 die in Italy from car accidents yearly . But the SARS-2 patients are severely ill over a long period of time, and their numbers are growing -- that's the problem (even though 90%-95% recover).

So even if you don't care about people's lives , it's gonna cost you more not to suspend economic activity. QED

I'm adding to my previous figures (though I'm the only one that cares lol):

Kingston Hospital: 15 ICU beds , ready to 'surge' to 35 ICU beds , are now ordered to prepare for a "super surge" -- 95 ICU beds . Operating theatres will be used for ICU beds , so important operations will be postponed.

While Lombardy saw 200% increase (yet collapsed) , that's 600% increase . Though it's just the number of ICU beds and we cannot deduct from that , If we think of national health budget explodes X6 ....

 

[terry_a_davis]

May i ask an off topic question here as i don't want to create yet another corona thread for 1 question.
Do you think i am safe walking my dog? I don't take him far and i don't come into close proximity to anyone.
I'm asking because i live with my elderly mother who is completely isolating herself.

 

[Quarky00]

And now I have the charts , lol