Discussion An asteroid is heading for earth (in 7 years time...)

[Forever Sleep]

I spotted this yesterday...



The slightlier funnier thing (gallows humour) is how many people in the comment section were happy to let it hit! I wonder just how many people do harbour ideation...

I hope I can be gone by then anyway. Pretty nerve wracking way to go or- not go. Do you suppose a bunch of people will try to figure out the landing area, cordon it off and all the suicidal people will sneak back in?

 

[waistcoat]

don't get your hopes up, we have the tech to deflect asteroids lol
there was a test last year( i think? maybe 2 years ago) where nasa managed to deflect an asteroid

we'll be fine, we caught it soon enough

 

[Pluto]

 

[One day too late]

There's only a 2.3% chance of it hitting earth.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2025/feb/06/asteroid-impact-chances

 

[waistcoat]

There's only a 2.3% chance of it hitting earth.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2025/feb/06/asteroid-impact-chances

hi, space nerd here - 2.3% is the literal highest (by SEVERAL orders of magnitude) chance of impact of an asteroid of this size impacting earth ever recorded. also last week it was 1.1ish%, andddd we will only have until April to make measurements before it goes out of our view for a few years.

 

[One day too late]

hi, space nerd here - 2.3% is the literal highest (by SEVERAL orders of magnitude) chance of impact of an asteroid of this size impacting earth ever recorded. also last week it was 1.1ish%, andddd we will only have until April to make measurements before it goes out of our view for a few years.

If 2.3% chance is the highest, then what is 50%?

 

[waistcoat]

If 2.3% chance is the highest, then what is 50%?

wuh

 

[purelydaft]

Last I heard it was "only" a city killer, so not a great asteroid for those of us less enthusiastic about life.

 

[Redacted24]

Last I heard it was "only" a city killer, so not a great asteroid for those of us less enthusiastic about life.

Ooh ooh pick my city! I'm too lazy to move to another

 

[quietism]

There's only a 2.3% chance of it hitting earth.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2025/feb/06/asteroid-impact-chances

According to JPL Sentry, 2024 YR4 has a diameter of 55 metres, and a Torino rating of 3. It'd probably have to land right on top of a city to kill it.

don't get your hopes up, we have the tech to deflect asteroids lol
there was a test last year( i think? maybe 2 years ago) where nasa managed to deflect an asteroid

we'll be fine, we caught it soon enough

The Double Asteroid Redirection Test from 2021-2022? Test run stopping Dimorphos, the satellite of the binary asteroid (65803) Didymos - US$330 million just for a test run - way too much cost involved if you ask me, but it exceeded results. There's a paper about the momentum transfer method here, but I don't think this method would work with all trajectories. In any case YR4 is nothing for us to worry about.

Much more concerning in my opinion is the rapid buildup of orbital debris, especially in low earth orbit. It is only going to get harder and harder to plot safe orbits and launch trajectories. External removal of launch debris remains a diplomatic issue and there are to my knowledge no reliable technical methods. That's also besides the fact it's just about as hard to fund as global warming activism, and telecom providers have a vested interest in compounding the problem.